Bitcoin is approaching its 200-week moving averages, a longtime support zone that many traders believe could mark a macro bottom for BTC.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin is nearing a long-term trendline retest for the first time since late 2023.
– Weekly moving averages are being watched as a potential safety net if prices fall further.
– Analysts point to investor resilience despite a roughly 40% drawdown.
Technical outlook
Market participants increasingly expect Bitcoin to test its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $68,000–$68,400. After four consecutive red monthly candles, downside targets have widened, including levels below $50,000, but classic trendline support could still provide a meaningful floor.
Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, noted that BTC is trading near a key cost basis and close to the April lows near $74.4k. He said a break below that area would make $70k the next important level, just above the prior all-time high near $69k. If that gives way, Puckrin flagged a bear-market low target zone in the mid-to-high $50,000s, roughly $55.7k–$58.2k, which lies between the average realized price of coins and the 200-week moving average. He described that band as a likely bottom.
TradingView data shows the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 200-week EMA together form roughly a $10,000-wide support band, a region many traders are watching closely.
Market voices
Trader Altcoin Sherpa said it makes sense for BTC to tap the 200-week EMA, an indicator not touched since 2023, implying a level around $68k could act as a 2025 low. Trader BitBull pointed to a recurring pattern in which losses of the 100-week EMA are followed by retests of the 200-week EMA. With the 200-week EMA near $68k, BitBull suggested a retest is likely and that investors could begin accumulating for the long term after such a test.
Investor resilience and flows
There are some stabilizing signs beneath the price action. Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise, argued that retail crypto has been through a sharp downturn since January 2025 but that historical crypto winters tend to average about 14 months, implying the worst may be nearing an end.
Data show US spot Bitcoin ETFs have registered net outflows of about $3.2 billion since mid-January, roughly 3% of their assets under management per Glassnode, indicating limited institutional withdrawals relative to total holdings. Derivatives traders also display continued conviction despite the drawdown, according to market reports.
Bottom line
The combination of long-term technical support around the 200-week moving averages and signs of investor resilience leads some analysts and traders to believe a macro BTC bottom could be defined near the 200-week trendlines. That said, markets can remain volatile and outcomes are uncertain.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading and investing involve risk; readers should conduct their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions.