Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick told clients on Friday that he believes crypto asset prices have likely reached the cycle low, and he’s watching three signals for confirmation. The three indicators he flagged are: evidence Strategy (MicroStrategy) is buying more Bitcoin, positive inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and continued weakness in oil prices.
Kendrick wrote that the cycle low for Bitcoin would be about USD 59,000 — roughly a 53% drop from the implied USD 126,000 cycle high. At the time of the note, CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin trading near USD 63,704.
The first sign Kendrick is monitoring may already be emerging. Strategy founder Michael Saylor posted his familiar dot-chart on social media with the caption “Still adding dots,” a phrase he often uses when teasing new BTC purchases. That message drew substantial attention online.
The second signal came from the ETF market: on Friday Bitcoin ETFs recorded a one-day net inflow of about USD 85.84 million, with five funds registering inflows while eight U.S.-listed BTC ETFs showed no net change, according to data compiled by SoSoValue. The third indicator — crude oil — was moving the other way; oil futures fell for a second straight day on Friday, according to market data tracked by major financial outlets.
Kendrick concluded his client note with a bullish line: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”
Relatedly, Strategy disclosed a surprise sale of 32 BTC in a June 1 SEC filing — its first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022. That move appeared to contradict Saylor’s longstanding “never sell your Bitcoin” stance, but he defended the sale as necessary to support Strategy’s digital-credit business. At a BTC Prague conference he explained that if a Bitcoin-treasury company cannot sell when required, its credit products would lack value and the equity would suffer.
Saylor has argued that companies holding Bitcoin in treasury must keep the ability to sell some holdings to support dividend-paying securities and other BTC-backed credit instruments. He framed the short sale as part of maintaining the flexibility needed to run those financial products.
The market reactions Kendrick is watching — social signals from large holders, ETF flows, and commodity prices — are short-term confirmations he believes will validate that the recent lows mark the cycle bottom. Investors and observers will be watching whether those patterns persist over coming weeks.
This summary is based on reporting and public filings; readers should verify figures and statements with original sources and filings for investment decisions.
