Warren Buffett told CNBC this week that Berkshire Hathaway bought roughly $17 billion in U.S. Treasury bills at the latest auction. That move raises questions: is Berkshire preparing for a wider market downturn, and how might that affect Bitcoin (BTC)?
Key takeaways:
– Berkshire ended 2025 with about $373 billion in cash and cash equivalents, up from $334.2 billion a year earlier and more than double its cash level at the end of 2023.
– Buffett’s pattern of accumulating cash has historically preceded major equity sell-offs, which could be a negative signal for Bitcoin given its recent correlation with stocks.
Buffett favors cash over buying the recent dip
Buffett’s message was straightforward: Berkshire does not view the modest pullback in stocks as a compelling buying opportunity. The S&P 500 is down roughly 5.75% from its January record high. Buffett said stocks aren’t “substantially” cheaper after that drop and called the current sell-off “nothing” compared with past downturns where markets fell 50% or more.
That preference for liquidity helps explain the Treasury-bill purchase. Berkshire’s cash pile increased to about $373 billion by the end of 2025, up from a record $334.2 billion the prior year and well above 2023 levels. Buffett has historically built cash cushions ahead of major market stress — for example, he reduced equity exposure and raised cash to roughly $13.1 billion (about 23% of assets) in 1998, rising toward $15 billion by 2000 before redeploying after the dot-com bust.
Why this could matter for Bitcoin
Since 2020, Bitcoin has often behaved more like a risk asset than a traditional safe haven, tracking U.S. equities—especially the Nasdaq. A 20-week rolling correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks was positive, around 0.47 as of midweek. If Buffett’s move signals broader risk aversion among large institutional players, BTC could weaken alongside equities.
Additional headwinds for Bitcoin
– Technical and security concerns: discussions around quantum-resistant cryptography and other security issues weigh on sentiment.
– Macro risks: potential inflationary pressure tied to geopolitical conflict and nearly 50% odds of a U.S. recession cited by some forecasters could reduce investors’ appetite for risk assets.
– Portfolio shifts: Berkshire’s Q1 2025 exit from Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech, realized roughly $250 million in profits and signals less exposure to crypto-adjacent plays.
Market analysts have varied views; some have warned Bitcoin could decline to around $30,000 in 2026 if risk-off dynamics deepen.
Bottom line
Buffett’s $17 billion Treasury purchase and the large cash balance at Berkshire underscore a cautious stance toward equities. Given Bitcoin’s recent correlation with stocks, a broad risk-off rotation could pressure BTC prices. That said, markets are complex and outcomes hinge on many variables, including macro data, monetary policy, and investor sentiment.
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