Galaxy Digital research argues Bitcoin’s next cycle low could land higher than prior bear markets because the recent rally lacked speculative excess. Analyst Alex Thorn reviewed historical cycle tops and bottoms and found the four‑year rhythm still closely matches Bitcoin’s past timing, but with progressively smaller peak‑to‑trough declines: roughly 85% and 84% in early cycles, 77% in 2022, and about 51% in 2026.
Thorn says October 2025’s peak was unusually muted. Only two of eleven traditional topping indicators fired, the Pi Cycle Top did not trigger for the first time, and MVRV (market value to realized value) peaked at 2.29 versus 2.93–5.91 in prior cycles. That calmer top means the network’s cost basis is higher — about 43.7% of ATH today, compared with roughly 34%, 21% and 17% after earlier cycles — which raises the likely floor.
Using the network’s current realized price of $53,600, Galaxy’s base-case bottom range is $40,000–$46,000. A deeper washout could push prices to $30,000–$37,000, while a shallow decline might keep Bitcoin near $51,000–$54,000. Thorn cautions that the floor is not fixed: in a panic, coins traded at losses pull the average cost basis lower and can shift an implied floor down toward the low $20Ks if cost basis falls 10–30%.
Timing also supports a bottom forming ahead: past cycle lows emerged about 12–13 months after the peak, and the current drawdown is roughly eight months old.
Onchain data from CryptoQuant places Bitcoin inside a valuation zone historically associated with major bear‑market lows. BTC recently traded near $59,000, about 9% above the realized price of $53,600, meaning the market is close to the network’s historical cost basis. Previous bottoms — including the FTX‑related November 2022 sell‑off — formed at or slightly below realized price, which would overlap with Galaxy’s $40K–$46K base range if history repeats.
CryptoQuant’s demand metrics are more cautious. The firm reports a combined weekly contraction of 652,000 BTC across speculative futures demand and apparent spot demand — the steepest pullback since January 2022 — and its one‑year demand gauge has turned negative, indicating fewer buyers now versus a year ago.
Taken together, the research suggests a higher potential floor than in prior cycles but also leaves room for deeper washouts if selling pressure forces the cost basis down. These scenarios underline that bottoms are path dependent: calm tops can lift floors, but panic selling can erase that effect.
This summary is informational only and not investment advice. All trading carries risk; readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.