Bitcoin fell to a year-to-date low of $74,555 on Monday, roughly 40% below its all-time high, coinciding with substantial capital exits from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs). Bitwise reports approximately $1.3–1.35 billion in weekly net outflows from Bitcoin products and about $1.73 billion from global crypto ETPs overall.
Key points
– MVRV z-score: Bitwise says Bitcoin’s two-year rolling Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) z-score dropped to its lowest recorded level, signaling extreme undervaluation relative to investors’ aggregate cost basis (volatility-adjusted). Bitwise labels the reading a ‘fire-sale’ valuation.
– ETP flows: Global crypto ETPs saw heavy withdrawals for a second straight week (~$1.73 billion last week after ~$1.81 billion previously). Bitcoin products were the main driver, led by U.S. spot ETFs. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and iShares Bitcoin Trust showed outflows on the order of $119 million and $947 million, respectively.
– Sentiment: Bitwise’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index slid to levels only seen during the October 2023 liquidation event; only 2 of 15 tracked indicators remain above their short-term trend.
Technical and on-chain signals
Despite the selloff, several technical and on-chain metrics point toward a potential short-term relief bounce after the local low near $74,500:
– Daily RSI: The daily relative strength index dipped into the 20–25 band. Since August 2023, readings in this range have preceded roughly 10% rebounds in every instance except one, which was delayed.
– Spot CVD: Cumulative volume delta (CVD) on major spot venues (Binance, Coinbase) turned positive as price recovered toward about $79,300, suggesting net aggressive spot buying rather than purely leveraged activity.
– Open interest and funding: Open interest remained largely flat while aggregate funding rates were negative, indicating the move is being driven by spot demand, reducing immediate liquidation risk from leveraged long positions.
– Liquidations and risk bands: More than $1.8 billion in long liquidations occurred last week. Meanwhile, over $3 billion in cumulative short positions are clustered near the $85,000 area and would be at risk if price rallies above that band.
Market commentary
Crypto trader ‘exitpump’ noted a bullish spot CVD divergence across major exchanges, reinforcing the view that recent upside is supported by genuine spot buying rather than short squeezes.
Sources and caveats
Analysis and figures cite Bitwise’s Crypto Market Compass, TradingView, Velo.data, and CoinGlass. This write-up is informational and not investment advice. All trading and investment decisions carry risk; readers should do their own research and consider their risk tolerance before acting. The information provided may be time-sensitive and is not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.