Bitcoin opened the first week of February trading near 16‑month lows as selling pressure continued and many market participants forecast further declines, with several expecting a move beneath $50,000 before a lasting bottom is established. BTC/USD fell to levels not seen since November 2024, extending losses after a difficult weekend for risk assets.
Key points
– Price action carried bearish momentum into Monday, breaking April 2025 support and drawing attention to heavy volumes on recent selloffs as an affirmation of downside conviction.
– The weekly relative strength index (RSI) sits near oversold territory — roughly 32.2 — a level last approached at the end of the 2022 bear market; some see this as hinting at a macro low, while others warn a true bottom often requires more time.
– Macro signs point to broader liquidity stress: gold and silver plunged sharply, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and equity futures showed weakness.
– The Coinbase Premium has turned deeply negative, implying a persistent shortfall in U.S. spot demand for BTC relative to Asian markets.
– Analysts also flagged open CME futures gaps near $84,000 and $95,000, suggesting the recent decline could be a temporary ‘‘fake out’’ that later reverses if sentiment improves and gaps are filled.
Trader views and technical signals
Multiple traders cautioned that the market remains in a bearish phase. One analyst, Roman, identified roughly $76,000 as the last notable support before the $50,000 area and pointed to elevated volume on the drop as confirmation of bearish intent, forecasting a revisit of the $50,000 region or lower. CrypNuevo suggested a sustainable reversal may not begin until price re-tests zones near the 2021 highs. Others emphasized CME gap levels as potential magnets to the upside should sentiment shift.
On technicals, the weekly RSI around 32.2 is close to conventional oversold readings, and shorter timeframe indicators have shown pronounced oversold conditions — for example, daily RSI readings at the roughly $76,000 level. By contrast, the monthly stochastic RSI remains a cautionary signal: when that measure falls below roughly 20 historically, it has often preceded a drawn‑out bottoming process rather than an immediate rebound. Analysts note that a meaningful rally historically follows confirmation — the stochastic moving back above the lower threshold.
Macro backdrop and liquidity concerns
Wider macro forces have amplified selling across crypto. The U.S. corporate earnings season has increased sensitivity after recent downside in large tech stocks, and a string of important economic releases was due during the week (ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, payrolls), along with several Federal Reserve officials speaking. Mosaic Asset Company argued that Bitcoin’s breakdown — and the formation of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern — could be an early warning about liquidity conditions later in the year, especially given some fund managers were leaning toward bullish extremes.
Precious metals experienced sharp volatility: gold plunged from recent highs to roughly $4,400 per ounce in Asian trading, wiping out more than 20% from its all‑time peak in a matter of days, while silver fell even more steeply. Mosaic linked the rapid commodity selloff to markets pricing in a potentially more hawkish Fed chair pick (the nomination of Kevin Warsh), which helped trigger a U.S. dollar rebound and placed pressure on risk‑sensitive assets, including crypto.
Dollar strength and equities
After sliding earlier, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) staged a rebound off multiyear lows. A stronger dollar typically weighs on crypto and precious metals, and many analysts warned that an enduring dollar rally paired with a firmer policy outlook would favor risk‑off positioning and could extend downward pressure on Bitcoin.
Coinbase Premium and U.S. spot demand
Onchain metrics point to a structural shift in spot demand dynamics. Data from CryptoQuant showed the Coinbase Premium — the spread between Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT — has been negative since mid‑December and recently hit its weakest levels in over a year. While prior negative readings were usually brief (consistent with tactical selling and quick mean reversion), the current sustained negative premium suggests U.S. spot buyers have largely stayed sidelined while demand from Asia outpaced U.S. bids. When the premium remains persistently negative during price adjustments, it typically signals a lack of immediate buyers in U.S. trading hours, adding downward pressure.
Outlook
Market participants remain split. Some technical indicators, such as the weekly RSI nearing levels seen at the end of the 2022 bear market and short‑term RSI extremes, align with conditions that can precede a macro low. However, cautionary signals — including the monthly stochastic RSI, structural demand metrics like Coinbase Premium, and a challenging macro backdrop — temper optimism and suggest the bottoming process could be extended.
Given these factors, a scenario in which Bitcoin revisits the $50,000 area or trades even lower before a sustained recovery remains plausible. Conversely, the presence of open CME gap levels around $84,000 and $95,000 provides a path for rapid rebounds if sentiment reverses and liquidity returns.
Disclaimer: This article is informational and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investment involve risk. Readers should do their own research and consider consulting a professional before making financial decisions. While efforts are made to ensure accuracy, no guarantee is provided regarding completeness or reliability, and forward‑looking statements are subject to uncertainties that may cause actual outcomes to differ.