Solana Finding Footing: $100 Could Be Local Bottom

Overview
Solana (SOL) appears to be holding support around the $100 area across several timeframes, a setup that could allow for a multi-stage recovery toward the mid-$200s if key resistance levels are cleared and onchain demand continues to strengthen.

Technical picture
After a recent high near $127, SOL fell about 25% and found bids close to $100. On the four-hour chart the move has taken on a V-shaped look: the 4-hour relative strength index (RSI) climbed from an oversold 18 to about 36, suggesting short-term upside momentum. The daily RSI remains near 29, a level that historically has coincided with local lows and subsequent rebounds.

Bulls will need to push through several supply zones to make a sustained advance: first resistance sits around $113–$115 where trendlines converge, followed by the $125–$130 area near the 50-day EMA and 50-day SMA. Clearing these could open a run to a pattern neckline near $150, roughly a 44% gain from current levels. Weekly support is concentrated at $95–$100; the last meaningful rebound from that band delivered a 166% rally from $95 to $250 between April and September 2025. If a similar move unfolded, SOL could ultimately test roughly $260, which would be near a 150% rise from present prices.

Longer-term moving averages could act as obstacles: the 50-week moving averages sit roughly between $140 and $160 and have impeded rallies in the past. Some analysts note that a bounce from the lower edge of a descending channel could push SOL toward the channel’s upper boundary around $215. Reclaiming the 20-day EMA (near $106) as support would be a bullish development that could lead to a $120–$150 trading range.

Onchain demand and ecosystem metrics
Network activity has picked up alongside the price action. Total value locked (TVL) on Solana reached a record 73.4 million SOL, roughly $7.5 billion at current rates, representing an 18% week-over-week increase. The previous comparable TVL peak was about 68.3 million SOL in June 2022, a period that preceded significant price appreciation.

Other metrics have also strengthened: daily transaction count hit around 109.5 million (a two-year high), daily DEX volume reached roughly 51.3 million SOL (an eight-month high), and weekly DEX volume for the most recent week was about 264.8 million SOL (a 12-month high). Daily active addresses rose approximately 115% during the second half of January. Historically, rising TVL, transactions and active addresses have correlated with bullish phases for SOL.

Outlook
The confluence of technical support near $100 and improving onchain demand makes the $100 area a plausible local bottom, but the path higher is not guaranteed. SOL must overcome several resistance layers and longer-term moving averages to confirm a sustained uptrend. Short-term momentum indicators are improving, but traders should watch the $113–$130 bands and the $140–$160 moving-average zone for pushback.

Risk disclosure
This rewrite is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risks; do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making decisions. Information presented here may become outdated and is not guaranteed to be accurate.