Macroeconomist Lyn Alden said she would place her bet on Bitcoin outperforming gold over the next two to three years, pointing to recent shifts in investor sentiment and asset dynamics. Speaking on the New Era Finance podcast, Alden said, “If I had to bet Bitcoin versus gold over the next two to three years, I would bet Bitcoin,” adding, “Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin.”
Alden described the relationship between gold and Bitcoin as a swinging pendulum: capital and attention shift between the two over cycles. After gold’s recent strong rally, she suggested the usual pattern of diminishing returns per cycle might reset, creating a window where Bitcoin could outpace gold’s returns in the next cycle.
Others in the industry have voiced bullish views on Bitcoin’s upside. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and some analysts have projected dramatic gains, with a subset of bullish forecasts envisioning Bitcoin reaching as high as $1 million by 2030 if clearer U.S. regulation emerges and influences other G20 nations.
Alden rejected the notion that gold is in a bubble, though she noted current sentiment around the metal is “somewhat euphoric” following a reported new high in January. She contrasted measures of investor sentiment for the two assets: the JM Bullion gold Fear and Greed Index registered “Greed” at 72 out of 100, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index showed “Extreme Fear” at 18 out of 100. Alden said sentiment toward Bitcoin is “somewhat unfairly negative,” citing its current trading level and its pullback from recent all-time highs.
She also cautioned against rigid narratives: “I try to be hesitant about reading into how absolute these things are. Gold and Bitcoin can go up together, they can go down together.”
Debate among investors continues. Billionaire Ray Dalio has warned against treating Bitcoin as a long-term safe-haven store of value, pointing to the lack of central bank backing and concerns around privacy and quantum resistance, and emphasizing gold’s established role as a reserve asset. At the same time, some analysts note a rising correlation between the two assets as both draw attention as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainty.
Whether Bitcoin will outperform gold through 2029 depends on evolving regulation, macroeconomic conditions, shifting sentiment, and competing narratives. These factors will determine if Bitcoin can capture the next cycle’s upside.
Cointelegraph aims for independent, transparent reporting. This article was produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy; readers are encouraged to verify information independently. https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy