Bitcoin briefly rallied above $74,000 on Thursday but quickly gave back gains as analysts reiterated that the broader downtrend remains intact. On-chain data provider CryptoQuant still classifies BTC as being in a bear market, with its Bull Score at just 10 out of 100, a reading the firm says points to deep bearish conditions and suggests the recent rise is more likely a short-lived relief rally than the start of a new bull cycle.
TradingView data showed BTC touching the 50-day exponential moving average on Coinbase and reaching a one-month high of roughly $74,000, but the price fell more than $3,000 and slipped back under $71,000 on Friday morning — about a 4.7% drop from Thursday’s peak.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, attributed the brief advance to renewed risk appetite and ETF-related flows, but said the move quickly ran into resistance as macroeconomic uncertainty and fading momentum weighed on prices. He flagged expectations of softer U.S. labor data in February as one example of weakening macro signals that could leave crypto vulnerable to further downside despite temporary, liquidity-driven bounces.
CryptoQuant also pointed to a recovering Coinbase Premium as evidence of renewed U.S. spot demand: the metric has flipped from deeply negative in early February to its most positive level since October, indicating U.S. buying pressure has shifted from contraction to growth. At the same time, selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has eased after unrealized losses climbed to levels last seen in July 2022.
Analysts at SwissBlock noted the market appears to be exiting extreme negative momentum — a transition that can precede a regime change — but cautioned this does not yet amount to a confirmed, sustained bull phase.
The situation remains fluid: short-term indicators point to a relief rally that has lost steam, while some on-chain and market signals show improving demand and easing stress. Investors should weigh both the lingering bearish backdrop and signs of shifting momentum, and verify updates as new data arrives.