Bitcoin Bull Run Could Restart If $74.5K Is Cleared

Bitcoin rebounded about 7.45% over the past two days after dipping to $62,400 on Tuesday, briefly breaching a key on-chain support. Despite the bounce, a meaningful concentration of coins purchased six months to two years ago sits with an average cost basis near $74,500, making that level a potential market inflection point.

Why $74,500 matters
On-chain realized price metrics track the average acquisition cost of UTXOs by age. For coins aged 18–24 months, realized support is near $64,200 — a level BTC tested and reclaimed by Tuesday’s daily close, according to analyst Anıl. Cost-basis bands act as psychological pivots: trading below them raises unrealized losses and increases the odds of distribution, while trading above tends to reduce stress for holders and encourages re-accumulation.

Expanding the cohort to coins aged six months to two years captures investors from the prior consolidation and breakout. The realized price for this group sits near $74,500, above current spot, and its MVRV is roughly 0.88, indicating this cohort is, on average, underwater. A sustained move back above $74,500 would return much of that group to aggregate profit, which could relieve sell-side pressure from holders seeking to exit near breakeven and support a healthier market structure.

Long-term supply dynamics
Long-term holder balances have recovered to about 13.96 million BTC after falling to a multi-year low on Nov. 21, 2025, suggesting continued dormancy among longer-term coins despite recent volatility. If the six-month-to-two-year cohort absorbs selling and holds its positions, supply sitting between $74,500 and $100,000 could thin more quickly. A decisive, sustained rally above $74,500 could shift liquidity focus higher, making $100,000 a more prominent target for future resistance and profit-taking.

Realized cap and capital flows
BTC’s realized cap — which values coins at their last on-chain move — is near cycle highs, but its expansion has slowed. The realized cap net position change has compressed toward neutral (around 0%), signaling minimal new capital entering on-chain. Historically, late bear phases show flat or contracting realized cap, while early recoveries tend to stabilize before accelerating. A renewed expansion in net position change toward roughly 2%–4% would more clearly indicate fresh capital re-entering and a return to rising accumulation.

Summary
The $74,500 zone represents a concentrated cost basis for a large cohort of holders and serves as a practical test for whether selling pressure eases and demand resumes. Reclaiming and holding that level would likely reduce unrealized losses for many investors, thin supply between $74.5K and $100K, and make higher targets more attainable. Conversely, failure to hold gains could keep downward pressure on prices and extend a neutral or corrective phase.

Disclaimer
This is not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risks; do your own research before making financial decisions. While efforts are made to provide accurate, timely information, no guarantees are made about completeness or reliability. Forward-looking statements involve uncertainty, and the author or publisher is not liable for losses arising from reliance on this content.