Bitcoin’s recent uptick looks like easing selling pressure rather than proof the bear market is over, analysts say. While price action has shown signs of stabilization, there isn’t a clear signal that a larger trend change has begun.
10x Research noted Bitcoin did not accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, which can indicate waning downside momentum. BTC reclaimed the 20-day moving average around $68,500 and Bollinger Bands tightened—conditions that can precede a range expansion. The token briefly topped $70,000 on Coinbase before retreating toward $68,400. The $62,500 area has held through three tests, reinforcing it as meaningful support. Meanwhile, RSI and stochastic indicators are showing bullish divergences, early evidence that momentum may be stabilizing inside a broader bearish context.
Those developments amount to a meaningful tactical shift, according to the analysts, but not a confirmed structural reversal. Volatility has compressed, ETF flows have firmed, and the Coinbase discount has vanished—features inconsistent with a market accelerating into a new leg lower. Yet under their allocation framework Bitcoin remains classified in a bear regime, so any bullish positioning should be considered tactical rather than a signal that the cycle has flipped.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said a mix of macro and crypto-specific events had pushed prices down earlier, but market behavior has moved “from frantic to somewhat measured.” That change supports consolidation, accumulation, or a range-bound phase, he said, and the muted impact of fresh negative news could mean sellers are exhausted or that buyers are incrementally accumulating at current levels.
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue, attributed the recent bounce largely to deeply negative funding rates in derivatives markets. Overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and ensuing liquidations created a classic short squeeze as price bounced from about $63,000 lows, relieving selling pressure. Negative funding rates effectively mean short sellers pay longs to keep their positions, which can amplify a rebound when positions unwind.
Despite the relief rally, Adziima cautioned there is no confirmed trend reversal. Structural inflows remain absent, macro catalysts are lacking, and the longer downtrend from the all-time high persists amid fragile liquidity and resistance overhead. For now, analysts view any gains as tactical reprieves within a still-risky broader market structure.