Analyst: Bitcoin Could Drop Toward $52,500 If Wedge Breaks

Veteran market technician Aksel Kibar warns that Bitcoin faces a technical risk that could send prices toward roughly $52,500 if a developing wedge pattern breaks down. Kibar frames the call as a chart-based risk signal — not a prediction — pointing out that a confirmed breakdown of the wedge’s lower boundary, around $66,000, would open that downside path on the chart.

Kibar posted on X that a pattern similar to the bearish wedge he flagged before Bitcoin’s earlier selloff may be forming today. He emphasized the caveat: the setup only becomes actionable if the lower boundary is lost. His guidance is centered on risk management: use chart signals to enter and exit trades and respect invalidation levels when a technical structure fails.

The warning echoes an observation Kibar made on Jan. 19, when Bitcoin was trading under its long-term trend filter, the 365-day exponential moving average, and tracing a rising wedge after being rejected near an upper boundary close to $97,000. At that time he noted the potential for the rising-wedge pattern to test prior support in the $73.7K–$76.5K area. That zone later softened, followed by a deeper washout toward the $60,000 area before the latest rebound began tracing the possible new wedge.

Kibar’s credentials lend weight to the chart call. He is a Chartered Market Technician, founder of Tech Charts LLC, and previously worked as a senior technical analyst and fund manager at National Bank of Abu Dhabi and as a portfolio manager at Abu Dhabi Investment Company. He also contributes and presents for the CMT Association.

For traders, the takeaway is straightforward: while price remains inside the wedge or breaks out higher, bullish positions face limited chart-based risk. But a confirmed breach below about $66,000 would remove that structure and could open a road toward the mid-$50,000s, near $52,500. At the time of the report, BTC was trading around $70,259.