Why Analysts Forecast Bitcoin Could Bottom Near $40K

Bitcoin made a modest comeback on Monday, climbing to an intraday peak of roughly $67,800, but many analysts still view the market as bearish and see several indicators pointing to a lower ultimate low — potentially below $50,000.

Top takeaways
- The $69,000–$70,000 zone has flipped to resistance, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.
- Short-term holder (STH) realized-price bands have declined, shifting the implied bottom lower, toward roughly $46,000–$50,000.
- Historical retracements and a bear-flag breakdown suggest a possible final low in the ~$39,000–$41,000 area.

Technical picture and market structure
TradingView quotes showed BTC trading around $67,750, with the $69k–$70k region acting as new resistance. A Technical Crypto Analyst argued that dropping below $68k–$69k “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” adding that unless BTC quickly reclaims $69k–$70k the path of least resistance is downward toward the $65k demand zone.

Michael van de Poppe of MN Capital described Monday’s bounce as “great” but not yet confirmed, saying a decisive breakout above about $71,000 would validate a bullish turn. He also warned of a possible “classic little sweep” down to $65k before any sustained push higher.

Sentiment and order-book dynamics also skew toward downside. Analyst Kyle Chassé noted the Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” and order books currently show more short positions than longs — a positioning imbalance that can pressure price lower.

Where a bottom might form
Bitcoin’s roughly 46% drawdown from an all-time high near $126,000 has pulled the cost basis for short-term holders (those holding under ~155 days) down from about $113,500 to near $83,200. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, said that shift means the pricing range where a bottom could occur has moved lower; the lower band of STH realized prices has declined, which historically has been a useful guide to cycle lows (BTC’s 2022 low landed just below that lower band).

On-chain analyst Willy Woo places a potential bear-market trough between Bitcoin’s realized price (around $54,000) and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD), currently near $45,500. CVDD is designed to capture long-term holder selling pressure relative to market age and tends to create a rising floor through bear phases. Woo summarized that ‘‘old school’’ on-chain models point to a bottom in the roughly $46k–$54k range.

Crypto Jelle highlighted classical Fibonacci behavior, noting that prior cycle lows often fall between the 0.618 and 0.786 retracement levels — approximately $57,600 and $39,000 today — and Cointelegraph analysis of a bear-flag breakdown has indicated potential lows near $41,000.

Synthesis
Taken together, on-chain metrics (realized price, CVDD, STH bands), retracement analysis, sentiment indicators, and price-structure studies converge on a range spanning the mid-$40,000s down to roughly $39,000–$41,000 as plausible final lows for the current cycle. Some models still put a potential floor closer to $50,000, so estimates vary.

Disclaimer
This article was produced under Cointelegraph’s editorial policy and is for informational purposes only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation. All trading and investing involve risk; readers should perform their own research and consider consulting a qualified professional before making financial decisions. Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and is not liable for losses arising from reliance on these views.