Trump Remarks Push April 7 Ceasefire Odds to 1.1%

By Estefano Gomez · Just now

President Trump called Iran 'animals' and said they are losing, and markets cut the probability of a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7 to 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day earlier. With four days remaining, traders show little expectation of a rapid diplomatic resolution.

Short-term markets moved lower after Trump’s aggressive rhetoric and warnings of intensified strikes on Iranian infrastructure. The April 15 market fell to 6.5% YES (from 8%); April 30 is 17.5% YES (from 24%); May 31 sits at 36.5% YES. Later-dated contracts also eased, signaling expectations of a prolonged standoff: June 30 at 51.5% YES and December 31 at 68.5% YES.

Ceasefire markets saw $431,402 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours, with April 30 drawing the most liquidity. It would take about $19,925 to move that market by 5 percentage points; the largest recent single change was a 2-point increase, reflecting deep market depth and trader skepticism. A YES share for April 7 pays $1 if a ceasefire occurs.

Market participants appear cautious about a quick de-escalation absent a major change on the ground or effective mediation. Odds would likely rise if third-party mediators such as Oman or Qatar intervene, scheduled negotiations proceed, or influential actors change course.

Markets impacted:
- US × Iran ceasefire by April 7: 1.1% YES
- US × Iran ceasefire by April 15: 6.5% YES
- US × Iran ceasefire by April 30: 17.5% YES
- US × Iran ceasefire by May 31: 36.5% YES
- US × Iran ceasefire by June 30: 51.5% YES
- US × Iran ceasefire by December 31: 68.5% YES

Prediction market data is available as a structured API feed; early access waitlist.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. See our Editorial Policy.