by Estefano Gomez · Updated moments ago
President Trump has given Iran 48 hours to reach a deal, warning of severe consequences if no agreement is made. Prediction markets have reacted quickly: the probability of a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7 has plunged to roughly 1.1% YES, down from about 2% yesterday.
Traders pared back their short-term expectations after the ultimatum. The April 7 market is trading near 1% YES with four days remaining. The April 15 contract sits at 6.5% YES (down from 8%), while the April 30 market is at 17.5% YES — all signaling little confidence in a rapid de-escalation.
Across the related sub-markets, roughly $430,773 in USDC is currently in play. Liquidity is thin on the earliest contract: an order of about $12,367 would move the April 7 odds by five percentage points, so relatively small trades can swing prices. Market participants are watching for potential catalysts between April 30 and May 31, where probabilities rise by roughly 19 points (to 36.5% YES).
At current pricing, a 1¢ YES share on the April 7 ceasefire would pay $1 if the event resolves in that outcome — a theoretical 100x return — but that relies on an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough, which market sentiment now regards as unlikely.
Eyes are on possible intermediaries such as Oman and Qatar and on any signals from an upcoming Pentagon briefing, either of which could shift expectations and market pricing.
Markets impacted (current YES probabilities):
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 7 — ~1.1% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 15 — 6.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 30 — 17.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by May 31 — 36.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by June 30 — 51.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by December 31 — 68.5% YES
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy: https://cryptobriefing.com/editorial-policy/