Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge, says the recent Bitcoin downturn looks like a normal episode inside the asset’s traditional four‑year cycle. He argued the sell‑off largely reflects long‑term holders taking profits around the psychological $100,000 level, and that institutional buyers and ETF inflows have only softened volatility rather than erased these recurring patterns.
Scaramucci noted that some long-standing holders—“OG” whales who believe in the cycle—can make that cycle self‑fulfilling. He expects choppy price action through much of the year and projects a renewed bull market emerging around the fourth quarter of 2026.
Many market participants, including Scaramucci, had anticipated Bitcoin reaching roughly $150,000 in 2025 on hopes of a pro‑crypto presidential agenda and more favorable U.S. regulation. Those expectations were disrupted by the sharp October crash that sent BTC from about $126,000 down to roughly $60,000.
He pointed to early 2023 as a reminder that markets can move against prevailing sentiment: after the November 2022 FTX collapse, Bitcoin found a bottom in December and rallied despite widespread apathy. Scaramucci describes the current drop as a “garden‑variety” correction consistent with past downturns.
The wider crypto community remains divided over whether the four‑year cycle still governs Bitcoin after BTC finished 2025 lower, or whether structural changes in the market have permanently altered its behavior.
Near‑term macro and geopolitical risks are adding pressure. Bitcoin slipped below $69,000 as the conflict in Iran entered its third week, dragging risk assets down. The S&P 500 fell about 1.3% in a session and recently closed beneath its 200‑day moving average for the first time in ten months—a commonly watched bearish technical signal. Some analysts warn that if Bitcoin’s positive correlation with the S&P persists, BTC could face downside of as much as 50% in 2026.
Readers are encouraged to verify these developments independently and consider multiple perspectives when assessing market outlooks.