The 2026 split between gold and Bitcoin reflects two different buyer bases, according to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at crypto ETP issuer 21Shares. He says gold’s multi‑year advance has been largely powered by central bank purchases, while Bitcoin holdings are concentrated more with individuals than institutional balance sheets.
Coltman argues that physical gold plays a geopolitical, strategic role for nation states that want wealth insulated from rival powers, making the metal particularly sensitive to deteriorating international relations. Bitcoin, by contrast, provides practical utility to individuals—especially when domestic banking and market access are interrupted—acting as an alternate financial lifeline. Coltman pointed to events in the Middle East, when Dubai and Abu Dhabi exchanges were suspended after missile and drone strikes from Iran, as an example of why continuous access to markets matters in crises.
Because the two assets have at times moved inversely, Coltman recommends holding both to capture their differing protective and utility properties.
Macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks pushed gold to a record near $5,600 per ounce in January 2026 before volatility sent it down to roughly $4,497 per ounce, reigniting questions about gold’s role as a store of value and how it will compete with Bitcoin over the coming years.
Market views remain divided. Macro strategist Lyn Alden expects Bitcoin to likely outperform gold over the next three years, arguing shifts in investor preference can swing momentum between the two and that gold’s recent gains may set the stage for renewed interest in BTC. Former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio offers the opposite view, saying Bitcoin behaves more like a risk‑on asset with correlations to technology equities and that it will not replace gold as a reserve asset entrenched within the banking system.
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