Crypto analyst Ali Martinez says a long-watched SuperTrend signal on Cardano’s daily chart has turned bullish, coming months after the same indicator flagged the start of a sharp decline. The update arrives alongside on-chain data from Santiment showing large ADA wallets now control a record share of supply.
Martinez called the new SuperTrend flip noteworthy because of the indicator’s prior accuracy on ADA. In a post on X, he noted that the SuperTrend had signaled a sell on September 25, 2025, which preceded a roughly 73% drop in Cardano’s price. After that extended correction, the indicator has now flipped to a buy.
He didn’t present the signal as a guarantee, instead outlining specific levels that define his view. Martinez’s first upside target is the $0.33 resistance zone, with a secondary target at $0.42 should momentum continue. He pegged $0.25 as the invalidation level — if price falls below that, the bullish case would be negated.
On-chain data from Santiment reinforces a structural element to the setup: Cardano’s largest wallet cohort has been accumulating throughout the drawdown. Santiment reports wallets holding at least 1 million ADA now contain 25.09 billion tokens, equal to about 67.47% of total supply — the highest share since July 2020 and an all-time high balance for that tier.
Santiment’s commentary highlights that key stakeholders have steadily added to their positions since December 2023, even as ADA lost roughly 71% of market cap over nine months. That concentration can be interpreted two ways for traders: as conviction by large holders during a selloff, or as a risk factor because future price moves may hinge on whether those wallets continue to accumulate or begin distributing.
Put together, the technical SuperTrend buy signal and the whale accumulation picture give ADA a clearer short-term setup than it’s had during much of the correction. Martinez’s bullish thesis depends on $0.25 holding as support and the SuperTrend-driven momentum translating into sustained demand toward $0.33 and potentially $0.42. Santiment’s data adds a structural backdrop, showing increasing exposure among large holders while price was depressed.
At the time of the report, ADA traded near $0.2664. The outlook will likely hinge on whether support holds, whether the SuperTrend signal sustains, and how large wallets behave as prices move.