XRP is trading well below its multi‑year high of $3.66 — roughly 64% lower — and technical and on‑chain signals point to a possible deeper correction toward the $1 area.
Key takeaways:
– Strong resistance sits in the $1.40–$1.45 zone, where more than 1.1 billion XRP were previously accumulated.
– Daily active addresses have dropped, indicating weaker network activity and cooling demand.
– Spot XRP ETF flows have softened, suggesting diminished institutional interest.
Technical picture: symmetrical triangle targets $1
Daily chart data show XRP struggling beneath a key supply band around $1.40–$1.45, a cluster where the upper trend line of a symmetrical triangle meets the 200‑week EMA and the 50‑day EMA. Cost‑basis heatmaps suggest buyers acquired in excess of 1.1 billion XRP across that range, meaning upward moves through it could encounter selling from break‑even holders.
Price recently tested the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle near $1.30. A decisive break below that level would likely confirm a continuation of the downtrend, with an initial target near the 200‑week simple moving average around $1.14 and a measured triangle target close to $1.
Analysts at CryptoBasic flag downside objectives near $1.146 and $0.884 if current support is lost, and say the broader bullish thesis remains intact only if XRP holds above an invalidation level at about $0.93. Earlier coverage noted $1.27 as a short‑term must‑hold for bulls to avoid accelerated losses.
On‑chain signals: network activity fading
On‑chain metrics point to a meaningful decline in activity on the XRP Ledger since July 2025. Glassnode places daily active addresses well below levels seen in March and June 2025, roughly around 50,000; at the time of reporting, DAAs were about 48,000. Daily transactions have also weakened — CryptoQuant reports a roughly 44% drop to 1.5 million transactions on Wednesday from 3.4 million on March 21.
Historically, falling network activity tends to coincide with price stagnation, as reduced transaction volume can lead to lower liquidity and fewer buyers stepping in.
ETF flows: institutional appetite cools
US‑listed spot XRP ETFs have shown signs of waning demand. March recorded the first negative month of flows since the funds launched, and analyst WizzyOnChain notes there have been no inflows since March 26 amid the price slide. March saw net outflows of about $28 million — the first monthly net withdrawal on record.
Assets under management peaked near $1.24 billion in early January but have slid to roughly $947 million, a decline driven in part by XRP’s more than 28% drop in Q1 2026.
What this means
A blend of technical resistance, weakening on‑chain activity and cooling ETF flows increases the odds of further downside, with $1–$1.15 as nearby targets if support fails. Conversely, reclaiming and holding above the $1.27–$1.40 area would be necessary for bulls to regain momentum.
This piece is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investing involve risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions. The information herein reflects conditions and data noted in the original reporting and may change over time.
