Polymarket traders pushed the probability of a U.S. invasion of Iran this year to about 63% on Sunday after President Donald Trump posted an aggressive message on social media. That estimate remains below a March 29 peak of roughly 68%, which had been driven by a U.S. troop buildup and administration comments about potentially seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil shipping hub. Polymarket’s trading volume on the invasion market was about $3.74 million at the time.
Earlier in the week, Trump had indicated U.S. forces might leave Iran in “two to three weeks,” a remark that coincided with gains in risk assets, including a roughly 2.6% rise in Bitcoin and a near 2.9% increase in the S&P 500. On Sunday he posted a far more confrontational message suggesting strikes on Iranian infrastructure such as power plants and bridges and using profane language to demand that Iran reopen a key strait or face severe consequences.
Following that post, Bitcoin traded near $67,500, according to TradingView data. Investors have been reacting to mixed signals from the administration about the scope and duration of the conflict, fueling uncertainty and influencing the pricing of risk assets as market participants try to assess potential economic and supply-chain impacts.
The president’s comments drew notable criticism online. Economist Peter Schiff warned that targeting civilian infrastructure would be a “lose-lose” outcome that would damage U.S. credibility and inflame anti-American sentiment. Podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack expressed surprise that the post was genuine.
Oil prices have remained elevated amid the tensions: Brent crude closed above $109 per barrel on Thursday, and trading resumed on Monday after the Easter holiday weekend.
Prediction markets themselves have faced scrutiny: Polymarket previously removed a market about a missing U.S. pilot after public backlash. The reporting outlet notes it adheres to an editorial policy promoting independent, transparent journalism and encourages readers to verify information independently.