CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator flipped into bullish territory on May 12 for the first time since March 2023, a shift analysts say could mark the end of the deepest phase of the recent correction. The indicator is derived from CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index, which aggregates the MVRV ratio, NUPL and a comparison of long-term and short-term holder SOPR ratios to measure regime change in Bitcoin’s market behavior.
Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, wrote on X that this kind of flip “often suggests that the worst phase of the correction has already passed and that market structure is beginning to recover.” At the time of the signal the market had already rebounded roughly 35% from February lows near $60,000, with Bitcoin trading above $80,000.
Historical context and caveats
The previous sustained green reading occurred in March 2023 and lasted until August 2024, a period in which Bitcoin climbed from around $20,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The notable exception is March 2022, when the indicator briefly turned green before Bitcoin extended a deeper downtrend into 2023. That episode underlines that the signal flags a regime shift rather than acting as a short-term predictive tool.
Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, described the indicator as most useful for identifying when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset, but he stressed that sustained demand, liquidity and price acceptance at higher levels are still required before treating the signal as confirmed. Moreno similarly noted several secondary metrics that show signs of exhaustion in the current setup.
Price confirmation and resistance
Analysts emphasize that price action must reinforce the signal. In particular, a decisive break above the $82,000 resistance—an area that has rejected multiple rallies—is viewed as a necessary step before calling this a validated bull market.
Supporting data and market commentary
Institutional activity and on-chain measures offer supporting evidence for a regime shift. April inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly institutional accumulation since October 2025. Glassnode’s RHODL ratio sits at 4.5, the third-highest reading in Bitcoin history, with only similar readings at the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms.
Market voices differ on timing and targets. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, argued Bitcoin found its cycle bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026 and identified $90,000 as the threshold where a rally could turn explosive toward the prior all-time high of $126,000. Bitget Wallet analyst Lacie Zhang said Bitcoin is positioned for a potential breakout toward $85,000–$90,000, citing strong institutional support and continued ETF inflows.
Bottom line
CryptoQuant’s green signal is an important regime-change indicator and aligns with stronger institutional flows and supportive on-chain readings, but analysts caution that confirmation requires sustained price acceptance and a clear break above critical resistance levels.