Tarek Mansour, co-founder of prediction market Kalshi, described the platform’s actions after it voided some positions following reports that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had died. Mansour wrote on X that Kalshi does not list markets directly tied to death and that when outcomes could involve death, the platform’s rules are designed to prevent people from profiting from it.
Iranian state media reported Khamenei’s death early Sunday after an attack the previous day. In response, Kalshi said it would reimburse all fees for the “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader” market and compensate traders who held positions before the reported death at the last-traded price prior to the report. Users who opened positions after the report were reimbursed the difference between the higher entry price they paid and that last-traded price.
A Kalshi spokesperson told Cointelegraph the company’s ban on “death markets” is clear and longstanding. The platform reiterated the rule publicly and said the market’s terms included a death carveout. The decision prompted some backlash from users who accused Kalshi of limiting potential profits.
The incident has also revived broader concerns about possible insider trading on prediction markets during geopolitical events. In February, six traders on rival platform Polymarket reportedly netted about $1 million by betting the U.S. would strike Iran by the end of the month. Bloomberg reported the six wallets were created in February, largely placed bets on strike-related markets, and some positions were filled hours before explosions were first heard over Tehran, prompting on-chain investigators and analysts to raise suspicions.
Earlier reporting linked a leak about U.S. actions in Venezuela to on-chain speculation as well: after a leak related to a raid and the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, then-President Donald Trump said the leaker had been arrested, which fueled conjecture that the leak might have advantaged recent winning bets on Polymarket.
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