Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin tech firm Jan3, says Bitcoin looks materially undervalued versus gold and the broader money supply, a gap that could precede a price reversal. Mow estimated that BTC is roughly 24%–66% below its trend relative to gold’s market capitalization or global money supply, while he sees gold as overextended.
Mow highlighted the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a statistical measure of how far the ratio deviates from its historical average. A Z-score of 0 means the ratio sits at its long-term mean; positive values indicate it is above average and negative values below. Historically, when the BTC-to-gold Z-score has dropped beneath -2, Bitcoin has later undergone “major” rallies. At the time of Mow’s post the Z-score was about -1.24.
TradingView data show the metric plunged below -3 in November 2022 amid the collapse of crypto exchange FTX; Bitcoin then rallied more than 150% over the following 12 months. A similar pattern occurred during the March 2020 COVID crash, when the Z-score fell below -2 and Bitcoin briefly traded near $3,717 before climbing over 300% in the next year and eventually reaching the then-all-time high near $69,000 by November 2021.
For context, gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90, and tokenized gold (PAXG) was trading around $5,404.14 at the time of reporting.
Mow’s view is contrarian to analysts who forecast further downside for BTC amid investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Some market watchers have cautioned Bitcoin could move toward $50,000, noting recent price action echoes the 2022 bear market; BTC had fallen more than 50% from its prior peak to a low around $60,000 before a limited recovery to near $66,400 following recent Middle East developments.
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