Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have held early discussions with investors about fundraising rounds that could value each company at roughly $20 billion, people familiar with the talks told the Wall Street Journal. The conversations are preliminary and may not result in any deal or the targeted valuations.
Kalshi, which operates in the U.S., offers markets on sports, politics, economic indicators and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December after raising $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi won Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has grown quickly and recently reported a revenue run rate above $1 billion, with some estimates closer to $1.5 billion.
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains largely inaccessible to U.S. users without a VPN but has said it plans to roll out a regulated domestic version later this year. The company was valued at about $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.
Both firms have attracted scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators after a series of suspiciously timed wagers raised insider-trading concerns. U.S. Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets following bets on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Senator Chris Murphy has alleged that people close to the White House may have used advance knowledge to place trades; several Polymarket accounts reportedly made roughly $1 million by wagering hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
Polymarket has faced additional insider-trading allegations: a small cluster of crypto wallets reportedly earned more than $1.2 million on a market tied to an on-chain investigation of DeFi platform Axiom shortly before the investigator published claims, and another account reportedly netted about $400,000 by wagering on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before that news became public.