Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said US-Israeli efforts against Iran are “not over yet,” underscoring that Israel is prepared to continue military pressure. That stance is reflected in prediction markets: the market on whether former President Donald Trump will announce an end to military operations against Iran by March 1 currently shows 0% YES, and the market on whether he will endorse an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30 also sits at 0% YES. (See the April 30 market listing on Polymarket.)
Trading volume in these markets is negligible, signaling near-total trader consensus that operations will persist rather than end quickly. Given Netanyahu’s explicit framing of the campaign as ongoing, wagers expecting a rapid diplomatic resolution appear highly risky.
The situation highlights a divergence between Israeli and U.S. priorities. Israel’s rhetoric emphasizes continued military objectives aimed at Iran, while U.S. officials have more frequently signaled a preference for diplomatic approaches. That gap reduces the likelihood of an immediate negotiated settlement and raises the chance of further strikes or escalation.
Market participants and observers should watch for new strikes on Iranian targets or any major escalation, which would likely reinforce current market pricing. Conversely, a clear public shift in U.S. policy—such as a statement from Trump or other influential U.S. figures signaling an end to operations—could alter odds quickly.
For those tracking this through prediction-market feeds, an API offering structured market intelligence is available; early access waitlist information can be found at https://cryptobriefing.com/api-waitlist/.