Digital Payments Set to Disrupt $230 Billion Banking Revenue

The shift from traditional banking to digital payments is drastically changing the landscape of commerce, affecting everything from retail to cross-border transactions. New research from the Capgemini Research Institute reveals that digital payment methods are widely gaining traction and are projected to continue expanding, largely fueled by stablecoins and various digital currencies.

Growth of Digital Payment Methods

By 2025, digital payment solutions are projected to constitute 26% of business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) transaction volumes. This marks a noticeable increase from 2020, where traditional payment methods dominated, making up 87% of total payment volume.

As we look toward 2030, expectations are set for traditional methods to fall to just 64%. Notably, credit transfers and card usage are estimated to decrease by 2% and 6%, respectively, with checks nearing extinction.

Conversely, digital instruments are expected to grow significantly, capturing 36% of the market share by 2030. This growth will be driven largely by instant payments and e-money solutions, like stablecoins and Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs).

Regulatory Support for Digital Payments

A supportive regulatory environment plays a crucial role in fostering the growth of intelligent money solutions. For instance, in August 2023, Singapore's central bank began regulating stablecoin issuers to provide greater oversight. Furthermore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore is making strides in developing a wholesale CBDC aimed at improving interbank settlements, with the launch of BLOOM anticipated in October 2025.

Similarly, Hong Kong is advancing its regulatory framework through the Stablecoins Ordinance, which came into effect in August 2025. This established a licensing system for fiat-referenced stablecoin issuers while furthering the exploration of the e-HKD project focused on programmable money.

Addressing B2B Payment Challenges

Looming operational hurdles often hinder the efficiency of B2B payments, pushing companies toward seeking enhanced solutions. Capgemini's survey of banking executives indicates that 74% of companies find cross-border payment processes to be slow and expensive. Some 59% of those surveyed reported pressures on accounts payable and receivable due to extended buyer terms and the need to settle payments promptly, while 55% indicated that outdated systems contributed to reconciliation delays.

With transaction values in B2B markets considerably higher, banks are now prioritizing innovation in this sector. Over the past three years, 60% of surveyed banks identified B2B payment innovation as a key focus area, yet corporate clients express dissatisfaction, with only 32% stating they are content with their main banking partners.

Shifting Toward Intelligent Money Solutions

The transition from concept to implementation for intelligent money is gaining momentum within financial institutions. According to the survey, most banks have started experimenting with stablecoins, predominantly at a monitoring stage. Tokenized deposits are entering the piloting phase, while efforts surrounding wholesale CBDCs are in a transitional developmental phase.

Importantly, banks view the enhancement of instant payment infrastructures as a pivotal goal, with tokenized deposits burgeoning as a primary near-term priority.

Asia-Pacific: The Leader in Cashless Transactions

In less than a decade, global non-cash transactions have multiplied nearly five times, jumping from 438.8 billion in 2015 to over 1.9 trillion in 2025. Projections indicate that this number will experience a 14.6% year-over-year growth in 2026, reaching around 2.2 trillion transactions. By 2030, this figure could surpass 4 trillion.

Notably, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region is expected to contribute significantly, accounting for nearly half of global non-cash transactions. With robust growth forecasted at 24.9% between 2025 and 2026, APAC will remain a pivotal player in the cashless landscape.

The success of cashless payments in APAC stems from a combination of advanced merchant digitization, well-established digital payment processes, and vast platform ecosystems. Notable examples include India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Thailand’s PromptPay, both of which have become leaders in real-time payment systems.

In China, super-app integrations, such as Tencent's WeChat and Alibaba, combine a myriad of services including messaging and payments into one seamless platform. Similarly, Southeast Asia’s platforms, including Grab and GoJek, connect logistics, delivery, and financial services across multiple nations, reflecting a strong adaptability to local contexts.