Fidelity Digital Assets says Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has dropped below gold’s for only the second time in Bitcoin’s history, marking an uncommon moment for an asset known for outsized long-term gains. The development highlights a shift in relative performance and raises questions about where Bitcoin is in its market cycle.
Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright noted in a Chart Chatter post on X that Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has trended lower even as recent price action moved higher, producing a rare crossover. According to Wainwright, “What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history.” He added that the measure has remained below gold’s for three consecutive months to start 2026.
That persistence is central to Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has historically outperformed gold on a five-year compounded basis, so a break below gold is notable. The fact this has lasted for three straight months gives the move more weight, and Fidelity describes the period as occurring during a bear market.
Wainwright compared the current episode to the only prior occurrence, which happened at the end of the previous cycle. He pointed to December 2022, when Bitcoin briefly fell below gold’s five-year CAGR as the crypto’s price bottomed near $15,000. The present stretch is longer, however, lasting multiple months in early 2026 rather than a single month.
Fidelity’s chart comparing five-year CAGRs highlights the rarity of the crossover. While the drop below gold is uncommon, it did briefly occur at the 2022 cycle low; the key difference now is duration, suggesting a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile.
Fidelity did not say Bitcoin has lost its edge. As Wainwright emphasized, Bitcoin has remained above gold’s five-year CAGR for the majority of its history, making the current episode an unusual exception rather than a definitive regime change.
Gold’s strong performance has helped lift its five-year CAGR. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, rose to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026—about a 67.1% gain over one year and roughly 132.4% over two years. That surge has pushed gold’s multi-year returns higher and contributed to Bitcoin slipping under gold’s five-year CAGR.
The takeaway: for most of its history Bitcoin has outpaced gold on a five-year compounded basis, but early 2026 produced a rare exception. Whether this is a late-bear-market anomaly—as with the single month in late 2022—or an early sign that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is moderating is the question Fidelity is posing to the market.
At press time, BTC traded at $74,015.
Featured image created with DALL·E; chart from TradingView.com.