Bitcoin climbed back to roughly $70,000 on Monday amid rising Middle East tensions, while on-chain data suggests selling pressure from recent buyers has eased. CryptoQuant’s metric for short-term holder (STH) profit and loss sent to exchanges fell to a two-week low, a contrast with the sharp capitulation seen in early February.
What the STH flows show
The STH P&L-to-exchanges gauge tracks how much Bitcoin recently purchased is being transferred to exchanges at a profit or loss. These flows often amplify volatility during stress events. On March 1, realized losses sent by STHs dropped to about 3,700 BTC even as prices briefly pulled back toward $63,000. By comparison, on Feb. 5–6 STHs deposited roughly 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours — a peak capitulation episode. Since then, loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have shown “zero panic,” implying the most likely sellers have not accelerated distribution. That reduction in loss transfers points to diminished immediate sell pressure from recent buyers; whether that supports a sustained rally depends on losses remaining contained rather than reverting to earlier capitulation levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
Derivatives and liquidity context
Risk reduction is also visible in derivatives: Binance open interest has contracted from about 130,800 BTC to roughly 97,680 BTC year-to-date, a decline near 25%. The estimated leverage ratio (open interest relative to exchange BTC reserves) has fallen to a weekly average near 0.146; historically, readings below 0.15 have accompanied aggressive deleveraging phases this cycle.
Technically, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its monthly RVWAP, around the high-$68,000 area. Clearing and holding above that level typically puts the average monthly participant back in profit and can shift near-term trader bias. On the shorter timeframe, price has pushed through $70,000 and is testing an external liquidity pocket between $70,000 and $71,500. If that band flips to support, it could open a path toward the $80,000 region where supply capped gains in January. Trader LP added that higher-timeframe, low-leverage liquidation clusters are stacking near and just above the 70–73K range, and such liquidity pools often serve as magnets.
Spot flows were tilted toward buying during the breakout: Binance showed about $7.79 million in positive delta, Coinbase roughly $1.16 million, and OKX nearly $3.7 million. The cross-exchange positive delta points to broad-based spot demand rather than a derivatives-only move. With leverage reduced and STH loss-driven selling down, market attention now centers on how price behaves around the $71,500 liquidity band.
This content is for informational purposes and not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risk; do your own research before making decisions. The information provided may be incomplete or change rapidly, and the author is not liable for investment outcomes.