Summary
Bitcoin’s short-lived relief rally stalled near $74,000 and the price slipped below $68,500, leaving analysts focused on the $68,000–$70,000 area as the critical zone for any continued recovery. Several major altcoins reversed from overhead resistance, reinforcing that bears are still influential. Opinions differ on whether this is the start of a new bull phase or merely a relief bounce.
Macro view and sentiment
Some market watchers point to historical analogues that suggest a bottom could be near. Coinbureau CEO Nic noted on X that Bitcoin’s price relative to gold has historically taken roughly 14 months from peak to trough, with bottoms followed by sharp rallies, implying the current 13-month run could be nearing an end. By contrast, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score remains deep in bearish territory, signaling that this rally may be temporary and selling pressure could resume.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC was rejected at the breakdown level near $74,508 and is testing the 20-day exponential moving average (about $69,003). Bulls need a rebound from the 20-day EMA and a decisive break above $74,508 to target roughly $84,000 and suggest a bottom near $60,000. If BTC closes below the 20-day EMA, sellers could push it toward the trendline support; a sustained break beneath that zone would open a path down to $60,000.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH briefly climbed above $2,111 but was pushed below its 20-day EMA (~$2,032), indicating rejection of the advance. Expect ETH to oscillate roughly between $1,750 and $2,200 for now. A clear turn up and a break above the 50-day SMA (~$2,328) would signal easing selling pressure and could clear the way toward $2,600.
BNB
BNB reversed from about $670 and fell under the 20-day EMA (~$637), showing bulls have lost momentum. The likely range is $570–$670. A daily close above $670 would favor bulls and could lead to the 50-day SMA (~$718) and then $790. Conversely, a break below $570 would expose $500 as the next meaningful target.
XRP
XRP briefly closed above the 20-day EMA (~$1.41) but bulls failed to hold higher. Bears are attempting to push XRP below $1.27; if that succeeds, price could drop to the descending channel’s lower support. A renewed push above the 20-day EMA could see XRP rally to about $1.61, where overhead resistance may reappear.
Solana (SOL)
SOL was rejected near $95 and slipped under the 20-day EMA (~$86). With a flat 20-day EMA and RSI near the midpoint, supply and demand appear balanced. Expect trading between $76 and $95 in the near term. A close above $95 would indicate bears are losing control and could send SOL to around $117; a break below $76 would revive selling.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE moved above the 20-day EMA (~$0.10) but could not clear the 50-day SMA (~$0.11) and pulled back to critical $0.09 support. A break below $0.09 risks a retest of the Feb. 6 low at $0.08; a close under $0.08 could take DOGE toward $0.06. Bulls need a push above the 50-day SMA to retarget the $0.12 breakdown level.
Cardano (ADA)
Attempts to lift ADA above the 20-day EMA (~$0.27) were thwarted, but buyers have prevented a slide below $0.25. A bounce from current levels or $0.25 would lead bulls to challenge the descending channel’s downtrend line. If ADA closes below $0.25, the channel support could come into play and potentially push ADA toward $0.15.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
BCH’s recovery off $443 stalled at $476, indicating lingering negative sentiment. Bears will aim to push it below $443 to complete a head-and-shoulders pattern, which could target roughly $375. Bulls need a move above the 20-day EMA (~$488) to show strength; a subsequent rally to the 50-day SMA (~$533) would increase the odds of a sustained recovery toward $600.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
HYPE pulled back to the moving averages, which are serving as immediate support. A strong rebound from these averages would give bulls a shot at the $36.77 resistance and the potential start of a new uptrend on a close above it. If moving-average support fails, HYPE may remain range-bound between about $20.82 and $36.77.
Monero (XMR)
Buyers are testing resistance near $360 while the 20-day EMA (~$347) is the key support to watch. A bounce from the 20-day EMA would raise the chances of clearing the 50-day SMA (~$396) and targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level around $414. A drop below the 20-day EMA would keep XMR under pressure and confined between roughly $384 and $302.
What to watch next
– Bitcoin must hold the $68,000–$70,000 zone to keep hopes of a sustained recovery alive. A rejection there likely extends the bear phase.
– Watch on-chain indicators like CryptoQuant’s Bull Score and relative-value metrics such as BTC/gold for broader context.
– Many major altcoins remain capped by overhead resistance; breakouts above their key moving averages would be needed to shift regional market structure to bullish.
Risk notice
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation. Trading and investing carry risks; do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making decisions. Information provided here may be incomplete or become outdated, and no guarantee is made regarding accuracy or future outcomes.