Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $66,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as analysts flagged US inflation dynamics as increasingly unsustainable and macro risk intensified.
Price action and drivers
TradingView data showed BTC falling roughly 4% on the day, putting March on track to become the sixth consecutive monthly decline for Bitcoin. The sell-off followed renewed oil-supply concerns after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears of wider energy-driven inflation and market stress.
Impact on bonds and policy expectations
The oil shock rippled into US Treasuries, with the 10-year yield climbing to levels not seen since the start of the conflict, a move some trading desks described as putting the US bond market under serious strain. That repricing has shifted market expectations: conversations that recently centered on eventual rate cuts have moved toward the potential for rate hikes or at least a prolonged Fed pause. Several analysts said rising inflation expectations—fueled in part by higher oil—are now a greater worry than weak labor-market signals.
Market-implied Fed probabilities rose alongside these developments. Short-term Treasury moves, including the two-year yield, reflected traders repricing the odds of more aggressive Fed action if inflation keeps accelerating.
Technical outlook
Traders were cautious about upside. Market technicians pointed to resistance in the $70,000–$72,000 area, noting BTC had broken an ascending trendline and was printing lower highs beneath that supply zone. Several analysts signaled a likely continuation toward the $64,000–$65,000 demand zone if the $68,000 support gave way; only a decisive reclaim above $70,000 would negate the near-term bearish tilt.
Data provider CoinGlass highlighted the broader significance for March: a sixth straight monthly loss would be Bitcoin’s longest losing streak since the 2018 bear market. Traders watching liquidity said the recent $65,600 low from last Monday was an important level, with nearby orders and stop flow likely to influence short-term moves.
What this means for traders
Risk assets broadly were derisking into the weekend as participants digested the oil shock and its implications for inflation and policy. Elevated recession probabilities for 2026 were also reported as higher energy prices feed into macro forecasts.
Disclaimer
This rewrite is informational and not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risk; readers should perform their own research and consider consulting a professional before making financial decisions. The information presented here may contain forward-looking statements and is subject to change.