10x Research says Bitcoin could confirm a bear-market bottom in August if the monthly candle closes above roughly $63,000.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted in a report that July closed below the level the firm considers necessary to mark a technical bottom, so confirmation has not yet occurred.
According to the firm, a monthly close near $63,000 would flip several of its cycle indicators to bullish. At the time the analysis was prepared, Bitcoin was trading around $63,140, meaning only a modest gain from July’s close could produce the reversal signal. 10x Research said it still prefers long exposure but would move to a neutral stance if Bitcoin breaches important support levels and moving averages.
The report frames its outlook around macroeconomic assumptions. Its base case is that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. Still, a further rise in the 10-year Treasury yield could force a September rate increase, and geopolitical flare-ups, including the Iran situation, remain unpredictable risks.
On supply-side risks, 10x Research warned that miners shifting parts of their businesses toward artificial intelligence could generate roughly 100,000 BTC of selling pressure. The firm also expects some additional supply if Bitcoin treasury holders begin unwinding positions, though it emphasizes that overall macro conditions are the larger market risk.
10x included monthly momentum measures such as the relative strength index as part of its cycle analysis, which would turn more constructive on a decisive monthly close above the threshold.
Separately, Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, suggested in a July report that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle would predict. Under that pattern, the cycle low could fall in September or October. Pandl similarly stressed that macro factors, especially Fed policy, will likely determine the timing and durability of any bottom.
Other indicators have pointed toward an approaching low. Crypto brokerage K33 reported that more than half of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss in July, a condition that has historically preceded market bottoms. K33 notes that in 2017, 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin reached a bottom within roughly 13 to 31 days after the same threshold was met.
Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has also pointed to the growing stock of long-term holders — a record balance of about 14.7 million BTC — as a sign that selling pressure from patient holders is reduced and a bottom may be nearer.
This summary is informational only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All trading and investing carry risk; readers should perform their own research and consult professionals before making financial decisions.
