Bitcoin closed the weekly candle at $76,931, slipping beneath its 100‑week simple moving average (SMA) — roughly $87,500 — for the first time since October 2023. Traders and analysts are debating whether that breach signals the start of a prolonged corrective phase and how long a recovery could take.
The loss of the 100‑week SMA is notable because past weekly closes below this line have often coincided with extended drawdowns and consolidation. Crypto commentator Brett highlighted three prior episodes: 357 days spent under the 100‑week SMA in 2014–2015 (price range roughly $200–$600), 182 days in 2018–2019 (bottoms near $3,000–$6,000), and 532 days after the 2022 FTX collapse (consolidation between about $16,000 and $25,000). Those stretches preceded long accumulation phases rather than quick rebounds, implying a recovery could take months rather than weeks.
Liquidity and realized‑price dynamics add to the downside risk. Analyst Sherlock pointed to a weekly close on USDT dominance above 7.2% — the first weekly close above roughly 6.7% in over two and a half years — a level historically associated with bearish conditions. He also noted heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000: more than $120 billion traded there in Q4 2025, leaving many holders underwater and creating potential resistance where sellers may seek breakeven exits. Short‑term holder cohorts (one to three months) have a realized price near $91,500, suggesting rallies toward that area could draw supply.
Technically, Bitcoin’s weekly price structure now shows familiar bearish fractal characteristics: lower highs, failure to hold above the 100‑week SMA, and short-lived recovery attempts followed by deeper corrections. If that fractal continues, the market could test established demand around $40,000–$45,000. Fractals are not guarantees, but the similarity to the 2022 setup raises the probability of a multi‑month consolidation unless BTC decisively reclaims the 100‑week SMA and holds it.
In short, losing the 100‑week trend increases the likelihood of an extended recovery period, with $85,000–$95,000 acting as a potential resistance band and $40,000–$45,000 a possible support/demand zone in a deeper correction. A sustained bullish turn would likely require Bitcoin to close back above and remain above the 100‑week SMA.
This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or a recommendation. Cryptocurrency investing carries risk; readers should do their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions.