Bitcoin’s recent price action has been difficult for holders, with months of sideways-to-lower movement and a string of bearish monthly closes since October that have pushed sentiment into fear. Rather than signaling deeper collapse, one crypto analyst argues this stretch resembles a prior episode that preceded a major recovery, suggesting the market may be closer to a turning point.
The 2018 parallel: six red candles, then a multi‑bag move
From August 2018 through January 2019, Bitcoin printed six consecutive red monthly closes, dropping from roughly $7,700 to about $3,500. That period looked dire: retail capitulation, deteriorated sentiment, and many seeing the market as broken. Instead, those six months purged weak hands, absorbed selling pressure, and laid a base. By May 2019 BTC had rallied to nearly $10,500 (roughly 3x from the lows) and pushed toward $13,000 by June — more than a 4x return from the cycle bottom.
A familiar pattern in a different market
The current sequence of red monthly candles has a similar structure but in a different context. Since October 2025 Bitcoin fell from a peak above $126,000 to lows below $70,000 — a controlled pullback of over 45% from the high. The analyst notes these monthly declines have not been impulsive panics but steady, absorbable selling.
Importantly, while retail sentiment has soured during the multi‑month decline, institutional players have been accumulating. The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, Strategy, reportedly added more than 122,000 BTC through this period, indicating professional demand offsetting retail weakness.
What to expect next
If the 2019 recovery template plays out at a similar scale, a 3x–4x move from recent lows would place Bitcoin roughly between $180,000 and $250,000 in the months ahead. A more conservative 2x recovery from the ~$67,000 area would still put BTC above prior all‑time highs, north of $130,000. The analyst’s takeaway: the current stretch of red monthly candles may have cleaned out weaker participants and set the stage for a substantial rebound, making selective buying a reasonable strategy for those who view the pattern as historically constructive.
