By Estefano Gomez · Just now
Gulf states are increasingly working to normalize relations with Iran amid the 2026 conflict, and traders are pricing rising odds of diplomatic progress. The probability of a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7 is roughly 8–9%—down from about 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago. Meanwhile, the April 30 ceasefire contract has jumped to 38.5% YES, and the largest week-to-week gain occurred between April 15 and April 30 (a 20-point rise), suggesting markets expect a near-term diplomatic catalyst.
Ceasefire markets trade roughly $1.37M in USDC daily. A single $43,954 trade recently moved the April 15 market by 5 points, signaling institutional-sized flows, while the biggest recent move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market driven by optimism around Gulf mediation.
The Gulf Cooperation Council’s engagement—especially Qatar and Oman acting as intermediaries—appears central to the shift. Coordinated Gulf mediation, together with US channels, could help stabilize the region and reduce the chance of Iran’s regime collapsing: the market for a regime fall by June 30 has declined to 10.5% YES from 12% yesterday and 22% a week ago. At current prices, a YES share near 10¢ would pay $1 if the regime falls by that date, illustrating how markets are pricing in greater stabilization amid diplomatic efforts.
Traders and observers should watch intermediary activity by Qatar and Oman, changes in public rhetoric from the US, Iran and Gulf capitals, and any signs of concrete negotiation steps—these signals have correlated with swings in ceasefire contracts.
Markets impacted:
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 7 — 8.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 15 — 18.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 30 — 38.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by May 31 — 55.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by June 30 — 62.5% YES
– US × Iran ceasefire by December 31 — 73.5% YES
– Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — 10.5% YES
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