An analyst going by Leshka.eth warns Ether (ETH) may fall roughly 40% to about $1,200 in the coming weeks, based on a fractal Supertrend setup visible on the daily chart.
Pattern and technical trigger
Leshka.eth points to a repeating setup where bullish Supertrend flips failed previously and preceded steep drawdowns. In October 2025 and January 2026, ETH briefly pushed above the Supertrend’s upper band, which then broke and the ensuing breakdowns produced declines of about 45% and 48%. The same structure is now forming around the $1,990 area: if that support gives way, the next measured downside target is the $1,200 zone. That level also lines up with the projection from the prevailing bear-flag pattern.
Macro backdrop and flows
The bearish technicals are appearing as Ethereum surrenders March gains amid worsening macro and geopolitical risk. Escalating tensions in the Middle East, rising recession concerns and bond-market pricing that has pushed expected Fed easing out to December 2027 have reduced risk appetite. Over the last two weeks ETH has slid more than 17% from its monthly high, and U.S. spot Ether ETFs registered roughly $300 million in net outflows. Apparent demand for Ethereum has fallen to its lowest point in about 16 months.
On-chain holder behavior
Glassnode metrics indicate the rebound hasn’t prompted broad accumulation among major wallet cohorts. Mega-whales holding over 10,000 ETH flattened after a late-2025 peak, with the 30-day change only slowly returning toward neutral. Whales in the 1,000–10,000 ETH band remain below late-2025 highs, and mid-size “shark” addresses (100–1,000 ETH) are also well under last year’s peaks. Those patterns suggest distribution and weak conviction among key holders, increasing the risk of a deeper drop if the $1,990 level fails.
Potential support
A couple of constructive signs exist: staking activity has risen and exchange-held ETH has declined toward multi-year lows, which could provide structural support if sentiment improves.
Disclaimer
This summary is for informational purposes and not investment advice. Market conditions can change quickly; investors should do their own research and consider risks before making trades. Cointelegraph’s editorial policy and standard disclaimers apply; no guarantees are made about the completeness or accuracy of forward-looking statements.