Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), may decline about 40% to $1,200 in the coming weeks, according to a fractal setup shared by analyst Leshka.eth.
Key takeaways:
– Ethereum is mirroring a pattern that preceded 45% and 48% declines in the past.
– Macro risks and whale distribution hamper the near-term outlook.
Ethereum setup flashes bull trap warning
The $1,200 downside target comes from a Supertrend setup on the daily chart, where two earlier bullish flips failed and led to steep breakdowns. The Supertrend is a trend-following indicator plotted on price that flips color to indicate trend direction. ETH flashed similar bullish flips in October 2025 and January 2026, but neither held. In both cases, price moved above the Supertrend’s upper band, which acted as support until it broke and the recovery unraveled, producing 45% and 48% drops.
Leshka.eth says the same setup is forming near $1,990: if that level breaks, the next target is the $1,200 zone. That aligns with the measured downside target of Ethereum’s prevailing bear-flag pattern.
The bearish setups are appearing as Ethereum gives back March gains amid a worsening macro backdrop. Risk appetite has weakened alongside the US–Israel and Iran tensions, rising recession fears, and bond-market pricing that pushes back expected Fed cuts to December 2027. ETH is down more than 17% from its monthly high over the past two weeks, and US spot Ether ETFs have seen roughly $300 million in net outflows over the same stretch. Apparent demand for Ethereum has slipped to its lowest in 16 months.
ETH holder accumulation remains weak
Glassnode data show Ethereum’s rebound has not triggered broad accumulation across major wallet cohorts. Mega-whale wallets holding more than 10,000 ETH flattened after peaking in late 2025, with the 30-day change only crawling back toward neutral after months of decline. Whales holding 1,000–10,000 ETH remain below late-2025 highs, and shark addresses holding 100–1,000 ETH are also well below last year’s peaks. Together, the data suggest ongoing distribution and weak conviction among key holders, reinforcing the risk of a deeper drop if $1,990 fails.
One of the few bullish signs noted is increasing Ether staking and exchange supply falling toward ten-year lows, which could provide structural support if market sentiment improves.
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