ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood says Bitcoin is unlikely to suffer another collapse of 85% or more from an all-time high. Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on April 1, Wood argued that the extreme drawdowns tied to Bitcoin’s early, experimental phase are behind it, even while acknowledging large declines remain possible.
Wood’s view
Wood noted that among many crypto investors a 50% drop is often treated as a victory, but she drew a line under the much deeper 85–95% crashes seen during Bitcoin’s infancy. Calling Bitcoin a proven technology and a monetary system that now qualifies as a distinct asset class, she suggested those early-stage-scale collapses are “done.”
Context and recent price action
Wood’s comments came as BTC traded near its 2021 peak around $69,000. After that peak, Bitcoin entered a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall nearly 80% to about $15,600 — the kind of deep losses long familiar to crypto cycles. By contrast, on-chain metrics from Glassnode indicate the current maximum drawdown from Bitcoin’s $126,200 record high in October 2025 sits near 52%, well short of historical extremes.
Contrasting forecasts
Not everyone agrees with Wood’s optimism. Analyst Tony Severino projects a steeper 72% drawdown in 2026, which would place a bottom near $34,000. That prediction is below a common trader consensus that often cites a generational floor between $40,000 and $50,000. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone has also cautioned that prices could move toward multi-year lows, adding to the range of views about how deep a correction might be.
Seasonality and near-term outlook
Some analysts see seasonal patterns offering upside. Network economist Timothy Peterson’s historical data points to April as a potential inflection month in prior downcycles, and March’s monthly close ended a five-month losing streak for BTC/USD with modest gains of roughly 1.8%.
Takeaway
Wood’s stance is that Bitcoin has matured enough that the extreme 85–95% collapses are unlikely to repeat, though sizable pullbacks remain possible and other analysts expect deeper troughs. As always, forecasts vary and market timing is uncertain.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investments carry risk; readers should perform their own research before making financial decisions. The information presented is believed to be accurate but cannot be guaranteed, and no liability is accepted for reliance on it.