New analysis finds that only a vanishingly small share of Polymarket users consistently earn substantial monthly returns, suggesting quitting a full-time job to trade prediction markets is unrealistic for most people.
Crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov reviewed Polymarket activity from April 2024 through April 1, 2026. His results show that while nearly 1% of users recorded more than $5,000 in profit in a single month, only about 0.1% repeated that the next month, and just 0.015% maintained $5,000+ months for four consecutive months. Sergeenkov’s write-up includes charts tracking the share of traders averaging over $1,000, $5,000 and $10,000 in monthly profits across the period.
For context, the average U.S. monthly salary is roughly $5,220, so a sustained $5,000 monthly trading profit is comparable to an ordinary full-time wage. Prediction markets let users buy binary yes/no contracts priced between $0 and $1 that reflect the market’s perceived probability of an event. Traders make money by buying undervalued positions and selling higher, or by holding contracts that settle at $1 if the event occurs.
High-profile anecdotes have highlighted outsized individual gains—Sergeenkov mentioned reports such as Logan Sudeith, who reportedly made $100,000 on prediction markets in a single month, and social-media posts claiming Polymarket is an easy route to six-figure returns. But the data show those stories are exceptional. About 840 wallets (roughly 0.033% of traders) have recorded more than $100,000 in profit; some of those addresses likely belong to professionals or trading firms rather than retail users.
Large winners tend not to stay active. Of roughly 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profits above $5,000, only 172 remained active for more than a year—about 2.6%—indicating many traders trade intensely for a short time then leave.
The analysis counts realized profits and losses only. Sergeenkov notes this limitation but estimates that 96% of trading volume during the window came from already resolved markets, suggesting realized results capture the bulk of activity.
Bottom line: while a tiny minority of Polymarket users do achieve substantial, even six-figure, gains, sustained monthly profits at the level of a typical salary are rare. The findings underline that prediction-market trading is high-risk and that most less-experienced users do not trade successfully; readers should verify claims independently and treat exceptional success stories with caution.