XRP has been in an eight-month downtrend, but several momentum and onchain indicators are now sitting at levels that historically marked macro lows. TradingView data shows the XRP/BTC ratio’s daily relative strength index (RSI) at 24, the most oversold reading since October 2025. Comparable RSI troughs in the ratio preceded 65%–345% breakouts for XRP versus Bitcoin in late 2024 and 2025.
The XRP/BTC pair is trading inside a long consolidation range that has often served as a launching pad. The June 2025 bottom inside this zone was followed by a 61% rise in the ratio and a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66. Other historical occurrences reinforce this range’s reliability in marking major lows.
MVRV Z-score points to potential accumulation
XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that has historically coincided with accumulation windows and market troughs. When most holders sit near breakeven, selling pressure tends to ease and downside momentum can exhaust itself. Similar patterns in 2021, 2022 and 2024 preceded sizable rallies.
In late 2024, a comparable MVRV Z-score aligned with a macro bottom near $0.30 and preceded a multi-month advance that pushed XRP/USD roughly 500% to the multi-year high above $3. The 0.80 MVRV pricing band, which has been associated with cycle lows, currently sits near $1.14, matching a 15-month low recorded on Feb. 6. Those onchain metrics suggest undervaluation and support the possibility of further recovery toward $1.70 or higher.
Support levels and downside risks
XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish while it holds the $1.25–$1.30 support zone. Analyst ChiefraT noted that XRP has sustained that major support area since early February 2026 and suggested a short-term bounce to about $1.45 is possible if it remains intact. Cost-basis distribution data shows roughly 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price band, reinforcing its significance as a demand zone.
Below $1.25–$1.30, the next defensive level is the $1.15 demand zone, which is near the 200-week simple moving average. A break beneath $1.15 could open a freer fall toward the bear-flag measured target near $0.80, about 41% below current levels. Holding $1.27–$1.30 would indicate strength among bulls; to reclaim broader control they would need to push XRP back toward the $1.61 range high.
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