Bitcoin still needs a major bullish catalyst to prevent its March rally from being wiped out, according to recent market commentary.
Short-term strength has lifted BTC from recent lows, but several technical obstacles and a looming longer-term signal suggest the broader bear market remains intact. Key takeaways:
– Short-term gains do not remove the risk that the downtrend continues.
– Significant resistance sits in the mid-$70,000s.
– A weekly death cross between faster and slower moving averages is on track to print this week.
Market observer Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, wrote on X that Bitcoin’s weakness is not confined to intraday charts. BTC briefly reached a monthly high of $73,019 at the Wall Street open amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, sparking bullish speculation and talk of new all-time highs. Alan urged caution, saying the current candle looks like a short squeeze and is attempting to confirm several resistance-to-support flips around key moving averages and Timescape levels.
Alan pointed to near-term reference points: the 21-day simple moving average near $67,550 and the 50-day SMA close to $76,350. He also noted longer-term trend lines clustered around the high-$80,000 area. Timescape levels at roughly $71,300 and $78,300 add additional layers of congestion around the current price.
If bulls can push price higher from here, Alan expects friction near psychological resistance of about $75,000, technical resistance at the 50-day MA, and the next Timescape level around $78,300. He added that a healthy market would likely revisit support sooner rather than later, and that the longer any uphill grind takes, the more durable the rally might become.
However, the bigger concern is a weekly death cross that is expected to form between the shorter and longer weekly moving averages. A death cross occurs when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one, signaling that recent price action has softened relative to the longer trend. Alan warned that this printing next week would likely be a precursor to the next leg down unless a substantial bullish catalyst appears.
Longer-term expectations among some analysts still favor a cycle low at or below roughly $50,000, and the impending weekly technical signal increases the probability of renewed downside in the absence of strong buying.
This article is informational and not investment advice. Trading and investing carry risks; readers should do their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making financial decisions.