Bitcoin fell back below $70,000 at the open of US markets on Friday after a worse-than-expected US jobs report failed to lift risk assets.
Key points:
– Bitcoin and major equities dropped after US nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside
– Fed rate expectations remain hawkish, with markets pricing only one cut this year
– BTC has retraced its recent breakout attempt, continuing a recurring 2026 pattern
Price action and market reaction
TradingView data showed Bitcoin declining more than 3% on the day, reaching about $68,176 on Bitstamp. The move tracked losses across US stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite sliding roughly 1.5% and 1.3% respectively at the time of reporting. Gold was the notable winner, rising about 1.5%.
The sell-off followed a disappointing Bureau of Labor Statistics report that said the US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February versus forecasts for a 58,000 gain. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, marking just the second monthly payroll decline since the 2020 pandemic and a sign of mounting stress in the labor market, according to commentary from The Kobeissi Letter.
Why the weak jobs print didn’t spark a risk rally
A softer labor market usually increases the odds of interest-rate cuts, which can support risk assets including crypto. However, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed little chance of a Fed cut at the March 18 meeting, and markets continue to price in just a single rate reduction for the year. With monetary policy expectations still skewed toward higher for longer, the employment surprise did not translate into immediate relief for stocks or Bitcoin.
Technical context: a failed breakout and a round trip
Traders expressed frustration as Bitcoin failed to hold a breakout above its recent local range. Onchain analyst Maartunn noted that attempts to push above the range high have repeatedly been sold, pointing to several failed deviations over recent months. The latest failed extension occurred near $71,000 and has acted as a trap for late buyers, he warned.
As BTC pulled back it revisited key longer-term levels, including the 200-week exponential moving average and the old 2021 all-time high. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan described the move as a ‘‘round trip’’ of the range, reflecting a pattern of short-lived breakouts followed by retreats.
Outlook
The combination of sticky rate expectations and recurring breakout failures has left traders cautious. Some participants continue to expect lower price tests despite recent monthly highs, while others watch for confirmation that the 200-week EMA and prior highs can hold as support.
This rewrite is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. All trading and investing carry risk; readers should do their own research before making decisions.