Summary
– Professional options traders are increasingly bearish on Bitcoin, pushing market pricing toward a greater chance of a sub-$66,000 BTC by April 24.
– Political and policy uncertainty — including David Sacks’s exit from his crypto/AI czar role and no clear U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan — has fed that caution.
Price action and immediate impact
Bitcoin slid to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% drop from $71,300 the prior day, erasing more than $210 million of leveraged long futures and leaving most calls worthless as the roughly $18.6 billion monthly options expiry passed. Options market-implied odds now put about a 53% chance BTC trades below $66,000 by the April 24 expiry.
Options market signals
On Deribit the April 24 $66,000 put was changing hands around 0.0566 BTC (roughly $3,730). The 30-day options delta skew has surged to about 15% — well above the typical -6% to +6% range — meaning puts are trading at a meaningful premium to calls and large traders are pricing in downside risk.
Macro and geopolitical drivers
A mix of rising geopolitical risk and domestic policy uncertainty pushed markets toward risk-off. Israel–Iran tensions and the prospect of up to $200 billion in additional U.S. military spending boosted oil to about $100 per barrel, while 5-year Treasury yields rose to roughly 4.07% from 3.72% three weeks earlier. Equities weakened too, with the S&P 500 retreating to levels not seen since September 2025.
Policy moves and market sentiment
Beyond macro factors, political developments have weighed on crypto sentiment. David Sacks stepped down from his public-facing role as the administration’s crypto and AI czar — though he remains an advisor to the President’s Council on Science & Technology — removing a visible advocate whose remarks had helped fuel expectations the U.S. might acquire Bitcoin via budget-neutral means. The lack of a clear U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan has amplified uncertainty.
Expiry dynamics favored bears
Friday’s monthly settlement averaged near $68,610, a level that punished neutral-to-bullish positions: about 97% of call options expired worthless. Put open interest at $69,000 and above topped $2 billion, tilting the balance toward bearish traders. Part of the weekend sell-off reflected traders’ reluctance to carry long exposure into heightened event risk.
Social chatter and the short-term outlook
Social media and commentator posts—such as a suggestion that the market priced in potential post-close political escalation—can spark short-term panic and widen option-implied downside odds. Those odds, however, are sensitive to fresh headlines and can flip quickly if no escalation occurs over the weekend or if diplomatic steps reduce perceived geopolitical risk.
What traders should note
The options market is signaling elevated fear and a clear preference for downside protection. That doesn’t guarantee further declines; it reflects the premium buyers are willing to pay to hedge risk through the April expiry. Rapid changes in headlines or macro data could materially alter implied probabilities before option settlement.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice. Market conditions change quickly; all trades involve risk. Do your own research and consider consulting a financial professional before making investment decisions.