Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped more than 22.5% over the past week, trading around $69,000 on Thursday and wiping out roughly 15 months of gains. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns the decline may not be over and points to signs of coordinated selling by large holders.
Key points:
– Brandt describes the move as “campaign selling,” suggesting sustained distribution rather than one-off retail liquidations.
– He highlights a bear-flag technical target near $63,800, roughly 10% below recent levels if downward pressure continues.
– Onchain analysts identify a potential bottom zone around $54,600–$55,000.
Price action has shown a clear pattern of daily lower highs and lower lows, indicating weak demand on dips. Brandt says that structure carries the hallmarks of deliberate, prolonged selling by big players rather than ordinary profit-taking.
Onchain data supports that interpretation. Miners shifted into net distribution through January, consistently sending more BTC to market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have trimmed holdings slightly — total balances moved from about 1.29 million BTC at the start of the year to roughly 1.27 million BTC as of Wednesday. The Coinbase premium, often used as a proxy for institutional demand, has also fallen to yearly lows.
Independent analysts echoed downside risk. Brandt’s technical setup targets the mid-$60k area near $63,800 if selling persists. Onchain analyst GugaOnChain flagged a deeper downside toward about $54,600, matching the lower band of the BTC DCA Signal Cycle metric. That band measures realized price over short windows and highlights when BTC becomes structurally undervalued; in 2022 the same band coincided with a bullish turning point after the fall below ~$20,000.
GugaOnChain described the convergence toward that band as a signal that an accumulation phase around $54.6K could be starting — a transition from capitulation to renewed buying interest. Separately, another analysis links the timing of major accumulation windows to macro conditions: historically, widening credit spreads have lagged price bottoms, implying a possible accumulation window after July 2026 if that relationship holds.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading and investing carry risk; readers should perform their own research and consider consulting a professional before making financial decisions. While we aim for accuracy, information may be incomplete or subject to change and forward-looking statements can be uncertain.
