by Vivian Nguyen
Dec. 11, 2025
Key takeaways
– Tom Lee links the ISM manufacturing index moving above 50 with past crypto supercycles for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
– He points to the end of quantitative tightening and rising liquidity as bullish drivers for digital assets.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said a shift in the ISM manufacturing index back above 50 has historically coincided with major growth phases for Bitcoin and Ethereum, suggesting the same dynamic could kick off a new crypto supercycle.
Lee made the observation in a Wednesday interview on CNBC’s “The Exchange,” noting a strong historical relationship between the ISM and crypto performance once Bitcoin’s long-term trend is removed. “If you look at ISM and Bitcoin and you detrend Bitcoin, essentially look at its distance from the 208, it’s almost perfectly correlated to the ISM,” he said.
The ISM manufacturing index measures U.S. economic activity based on purchasing managers’ reports covering new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, while readings below 50 indicate contraction. The latest ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.2 in November 2025.
Beyond the ISM link, Lee highlighted broader macro factors that could favor crypto markets: the end of quantitative tightening and an increase in liquidity. He argued these conditions make digital assets more sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle right now — characteristics that could push prices higher as those forces turn more accommodative.
Lee challenged the notion that crypto must follow a strict four‑year cycle tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule, echoing views from investors like ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood that the pattern could be disrupted. He expects impressive gains sooner rather than later, suggesting new highs could arrive as early as January.
“I think Bitcoin is a bit of a chameleon because there’ll probably be a time when it acts like gold,” Lee said. “But right now it acts a lot more like it’s sensitive to monetary policy and the business cycle. And both are about to turn up.”
In short, Lee’s thesis hinges on two main points: a potential ISM-driven pickup in economic activity and an inflection in liquidity conditions. If both play out, he believes they could combine to spark a renewed, strong upward phase for Bitcoin and Ethereum.