Key takeaways:
– SOL derivatives show bearish bias: funding rates near 0% and puts trading at a premium.
– Solana still leads DEX volume, but perpetuals trading has shifted to specialist chains like Hyperliquid.
SOL slid about 11% over three days after topping out at $97.70 on Monday, dropping to roughly $87 on Thursday and triggering roughly $25 million of long liquidations. That sell-off dented sentiment and left traders increasingly wary of further falls, raising the probability of a retest of the $80 area.
Derivatives markets paint a cautious picture. The SOL perpetual futures annualized funding rate was effectively at 0% on Thursday, signaling a lack of demand for levered long exposure. Over the past month bears have driven leverage flows—an uncommon stance in crypto, where optimistic funding is typical under neutral conditions because of capital costs and exchange risks pushing rates positive.
Options activity reinforces that unease. The 30-day put-call (delta) skew jumped to about 12% on Thursday, with puts trading at a premium to comparable calls. That suggests institutional players, market makers and large holders are reluctant to carry downside risk even though SOL remains some 70% beneath its all-time high.
On-chain revenue also softened. Solana DApps generated about $22 million in revenue recently, its weakest 18-month level and down from roughly $36 million two months earlier. BNB Chain experienced a comparable downturn, seeing about a 52% decline in DApp revenue over the same span. Where Solana has pushed ahead is in decentralized exchange activity—projects such as Pump, Raydium and Orca keep it first by DEX volume—but new L1s and L2s optimized for perpetual trading are taking market share in derivatives.
Specialist chains and venues built for perpetuals—Hyperliquid, Edgex, Zklighter and Aster—now account for more than 80% of total perpetuals volume. The launch of an officially licensed S&P 500 Index perpetual futures contract on Hyperliquid, developed with Trade[XYZ] and offered to eligible non-U.S. users, likely shifted some flow away from SOL and broadened the appeal of tokenized equities and perpetual options on those platforms.
A quick market snapshot: SOL’s market capitalization sits near $51 billion, about a 42% discount to BNB’s roughly $88 billion. Solana’s total value locked (TVL) is approximately $6.9 billion versus BNB Chain’s $5.7 billion. Over the last 30 days, Solana collected around $20.8 million in network fees compared with BNB Chain’s $9.1 million, according to DefiLlama.
Sentiment is further weighed by corporates that adopted SOL-heavy treasury strategies; names such as Forward Industries (FWDI US) and DeFi Development Corp. (DFDV US) are reportedly holding positions that are underwater, which adds to negative headlines.
Taken together, softer on-chain metrics and cautious derivatives markets suggest the path back above $110 may take longer than bulls hoped. Short-term risks include further deleveraging and continued outflows to perpetual-first platforms, while a sustained recovery will likely require renewed DApp activity or a return of confident leverage demand.
This write-up is informational only and not investment advice. All trading and investment decisions carry risk; readers should perform their own research before acting. The information provided here may be incomplete or subject to change and is not guaranteed for accuracy or reliability.