Solana’s native token SOL has plunged roughly 72% from its $295 all-time high and is trading well below the $188 level it reached when spot SOL ETFs launched in October 2025. After an initial burst of ETF interest, weekly inflows slowed from early December 2025 as the token underwent a four-month retracement to the mid-double-digits.
ETF flows held up better than price suggests
Spot SOL ETFs that launched in late October 2025 saw strong early demand, averaging over $100 million in net weekly inflows across their first five weeks. Since December, however, weekly inflows have declined to about $20–$25 million while SOL slid toward $86 in February 2026. Despite the price drop, cumulative outflows over the four-month drawdown were modest — roughly $11.3 million across a two-week span — whereas BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced four straight months of net negative flows during the same window.
On-chain usage runs counter to the price action
Network activity on Solana paints a different picture from the price decline. Over the past 30 days Solana-based DEXes processed about $108 billion in volume, outpacing Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. January volume climbed to $117 billion, higher than December and November levels, and weekly DEX averages since January 2025 have been in the $20–$25 billion range.
Short-term revenue and engagement have also been strong. In the last 24 hours Solana protocols generated roughly $3.1 million in application revenue versus approximately $2.95 million on Ethereum. Active on-chain addresses on Solana stood near 2.17 million versus about 682,236 for Ethereum, and chain fees were about $722,706 compared with Ethereum’s $356,438.
Real-world asset (RWA) activity on Solana is expanding as well: tokenized real-world assets on the chain reached an all-time high of roughly $1.71 billion, a 45% increase in 30 days, though Ethereum still accounts for the majority of the industry’s distributed asset value (around $15 billion of $25.37 billion total).
Support clusters and potential downside zones
Technical analysts point to a few macro price areas that could be important if SOL attempts to stabilize or recover. One is a 0.75 Fibonacci retracement pocket near $60–$70, commonly associated with deeper pullbacks inside long-term uptrends. A lower weekly “demand fair value gap” sits between $22 and $29 — an imbalance zone that preceded the earlier rally from roughly $25 to $200.
Currently SOL remains capped below weekly resistance around $120. On the weekly chart the token has tested a broader demand zone in the $51–$80 range, which overlaps the 0.75 retracement and could act as a base if buying returns.
On-chain cost-basis data (UTXO Realized Price Distribution-style metrics) show a dense concentration of holder cost in the current price band: more than 6% of circulating supply last moved inside today’s price cluster. The next meaningful concentration above 3% of supply sits between $20 and $30, underscoring a material realized-supply layer below current levels.
Valuation gap between activity and price
There is a measurable disconnect between rising network activity and the depressed SOL price. ETF positioning hasn’t fully unwound, DEX turnover on Solana leads many rival chains despite Solana’s lower total value locked, and revenue and address activity are strong relative to price. That combination leaves a valuation gap — whether it closes via appreciation in SOL or a further repricing will hinge on how the $51–$80 demand area and the $120 resistance interact with ETF flows and on-chain metrics in the coming months.
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