A Reuters survey of 47 market strategists, analysts and portfolio managers puts the median S&P 500 year-end 2026 target at 7,620 — only about 1.3% above the May 26 close of 7,519.12. In short, Wall Street’s expectation is for barely more upside from here.
Respondents identified several persistent risks likely to cap gains: an ongoing conflict in the Middle East, rising energy costs and stubborn inflation. Those headwinds, they said, help explain why the consensus forecast has only inched up from an earlier projection around 7,500 to the current 7,620 median.
Major banks’ targets mirror the poll’s muted outlook. Goldman Sachs keeps a year-end target of 7,600, essentially matching the median. Morgan Stanley is a bit more upbeat at 7,800, while Deutsche Bank is the most optimistic among the three with an 8,000 target. The poll also projects the index could reach about 8,050 by mid-2027.
For investors, the outlook highlights sector nuances. Higher energy prices are viewed as a broad-market headwind, yet they directly benefit energy producers, creating a sectoral divergence in performance.
Investors who follow both equities and crypto may note that equity risk appetite has historically correlated with digital asset performance, though the Reuters poll did not address cryptocurrencies.
This piece was edited by the publication’s editorial team.