On-chain analyst Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin may be staging a short-lived rally that lures optimistic traders before the broader downtrend resumes. In an X post he described a “bull trap forming,” projecting the deceptive breakout could persist “out to [the] end of April.” Woo said his view is rooted in liquidity dynamics rather than specific price levels and that he would change the outlook only if significant long-term capital returns to the market.
From a longer liquidity viewpoint, Woo believes Bitcoin is “solidly in the middle of its bear market.” He noted that after steep drops BTC typically consolidates, trades sideways and mounts rallies that test resistance levels. Bitcoin has slid roughly 46.82% from October’s all-time high near $126,000 and was trading around $67,012 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap.
On-chain metrics and sentiment indicators back a cautious stance. Santiment reports that whale wallets have been selling aggressively while retail addresses accumulate below $70,000 — a mix that historically indicates the correction may not be over. CryptoQuant and other analysts likewise maintain that Bitcoin remains in a bear market despite intermittent relief rallies.
Woo also pointed out that investor flows have shown a “consistent recovery” since mid-February, even though BTC failed to hold the mid-$70,000s after briefly touching roughly $74,000. Some observers, including analyst Benjamin Cowen, expect 2026 to behave like a bear-market year and not produce new all-time highs.
Sentiment gauges reflect the uncertainty: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, after a short-lived improvement, has slipped back toward “extreme fear.” As always, readers should verify market information independently and consider multiple on-chain and macro indicators before making investment decisions.