New analysis from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has renewed discussion about a long-term, theoretical threat to Bitcoin if quantum computing advances far enough to break current cryptography. The report, highlighted by crypto trader Evans on X, estimates roughly 6.04 million BTC—about 30% of the total supply—could be exposed to future quantum-based attacks because their associated public keys have already been revealed on-chain.
Why those coins are at risk
The exposure is tied to how Bitcoin addresses and key usage work. Once a public key is revealed on-chain, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer in the future could, in theory, derive the corresponding private key. Glassnode’s breakdown shows roughly 4.12 million BTC of the total risk stems from address reuse and legacy custody practices that unnecessarily increase public-key exposure. Centralized platforms also factor into the picture: the data indicates exchanges collectively hold more than 1.6 million BTC in addresses that could be considered potentially exposed today.
It’s important to emphasize that this is a forward-looking, theoretical concern rather than an immediate vulnerability. Current cryptography remains secure against today’s classical compute resources; the focus is on what could happen if quantum capabilities advance substantially.
Market context: spot volume collapse and where activity stands
Separately, Bitcoin spot trading activity has fallen sharply. Spot volumes are down about 81% since October 2025, returning market participation to levels typically seen in bear-market phases. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost notes comparable low activity was last observed around July 2023. Even with the overall pullback, major venues still dominate: Binance remains the largest spot liquidity provider (it recorded $198.6 billion in volume in October 2025), but current market-wide volumes are roughly five times lower than that peak period.
Other venues have seen even steeper declines: Gate.io reported a roughly 79.6% drop in volumes, while Bybit is down about 66%. The pullback in trading aligns with a broader macro backdrop—resurgent inflationary pressure and geopolitical tensions, including US-Iran issues, have pushed some investors toward commodities and traditional equities instead of riskier crypto exposure.
Why the low volume might matter positively
Darkfost and other analysts suggest a constructive interpretation: dramatically lower spot volume can indicate that selling pressure is waning and that the retracement may be running out of momentum. Historically, prolonged low-volume stretches have often coincided with the late stages of market corrections, when speculative excess is cleared and the market prepares for renewed volatility and potential recovery. A similar collapse in trading activity was recorded near the end of the 2023 bear market before volatility returned and bullish trends resumed.
Takeaway
Glassnode’s findings underscore two separate dynamics: a theoretical, long-term quantum risk tied to exposed public keys and address-reuse practices, and a present decline in trading activity that resembles past bear-market conditions. Mitigations commonly discussed in the community include minimizing address reuse and modernizing custody practices to reduce unnecessary public-key exposure. While the quantum threat remains speculative and dependent on future technological breakthroughs, the report highlights areas where hygiene and infrastructure could be strengthened today.