Prediction-market site Polymarket says it has banned and reported users who sent death threats to an Israeli journalist in an effort to force him to change a news item about an alleged Iranian missile strike that was the subject of a heavily backed market.
Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian reported that he began receiving messages asking him to amend his account of a projectile that struck outside Beit Shemesh on March 10. The messages, Fabian said, appeared intended to determine whether a strike had occurred on that date so a Polymarket prediction could be resolved.
The market accepted bets on the date Iran would strike Israel, with more than $17 million staked on March 10. Polymarket’s rules state the market resolves to “Yes” if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date, and clarify that missiles or drones that are intercepted do not count even if debris lands in Israel.
Fabian said his short report that a missile hit an open area became the focus of a betting dispute. People who backed “No” on a March 10 strike pressured him to change the wording so they would win. He received emails, calls and direct messages urging him to describe the incident as a fragment or an intercepted projectile; one person even fabricated a message to make it appear Fabian had agreed the missile was intercepted.
He described receiving long, threatening Hebrew messages from someone who identified himself as “Haim,” who demanded the report be changed or else. According to Fabian, the messages included warnings that he was “at risk,” threats to “finish you,” and claims that Fabian had made “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” along with specific details about his parents, family and neighborhood. Fabian reported the threats to police, who are investigating.
Polymarket said it condemns the harassment, that the behavior violated its Terms of Service, and that it has banned the accounts involved and will share their information with the relevant authorities.
Fabian said a colleague had earlier told him an acquaintance asked for the story to be altered; that acquaintance later admitted placing bets on Polymarket and offered to share winnings if the report was changed. Fabian said he resisted the pressure but expressed concern that promised payouts could tempt other journalists.
At the time of the dispute, “No” bettors argued the March 10 explosion was an intercepted missile. Fabian later reported that the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed the projectile that exploded outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted.
Trading volumes on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in the past year, prompting critics and some lawmakers to warn that markets tied to war and political events can incentivize insider trading and other harmful behavior.