Condom maker Karex warns of potential 30% price increases due to supply-chain disruptions from the Iran war. Crude oil all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES.
Market reaction
The odds of oil eclipsing its all-time high remain at 1% even as a Strait of Hormuz closure removes nearly 25% of global oil transit, with traffic down more than 95%. Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by May 15 is at 14.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday.
Why it matters
The April 30 market shows $100,828 in face value daily but only $2,513 in actual trades, meaning a $695 bet can swing the price by 5 points. The largest recent movement was a 1-point jump. The Strait of Hormuz market is somewhat deeper with $36,459 in real USDC traded daily, where $4,658 moves the odds by 5 points and its biggest move was a 2-point spike, implying traders doubt a swift resolution.
The closure disrupts oil supply chains and related sectors like shipping, yet the 1% price on the oil record-high contract indicates traders do not expect an immediate price surge despite the supply shock. Buying YES at 1¢ pays $1 if it occurs, a 100x return—requiring belief in dramatic escalation before month-end.
What to watch
US or UK military or diplomatic moves toward Iran, and any OPEC+ production decisions. Either could rapidly shift both oil prices and strait-traffic contract odds.
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